MEXICO: Latest Dollar Upswing Pressures Peso
* USDMXN had a punchy reversal higher on Tuesday as the post US CPI enthusiasm for the dollar and ...
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BUND TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
- RES 1: 131.06 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
- PRICE: 130.49 @ 10:12 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 130.17 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22
- SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
Bund futures have traded lower today, extending the reversal from Friday’s session high. For now, the move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.
SLOVAKIA AUCTION RESULTS: 6/8/10/26-Year SlovGBs
| Coupon | 3.00% | 3.625% | 3.75% | 1.00% |
| Maturity | Nov-31 | Jun-33 | Feb-35 | Oct-51 |
| Instrument | SlovGB | SlovGB | SlovGB | SlovGB |
| ISIN | SK4000026241 | SK4000023230 | SK4000022539 | SK4000019857 |
| Amount | E61mln | E163mln | E190mln | E112mln |
| Previous | E146mln | E204mln | E121mln | E103mln |
| Avg yield | 2.9429% | 3.2675% | 3.4310% | 4.1232% |
| Previous | 2.9902% | 3.3218% | 3.4744% | 4.1748% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.92x | 1.80x | 4.90x | 1.88x |
| Previous | 2.67x | 2.44x | 3.64x | 2.75x |
| Avg Price | 100.3177 | 102.4725 | 102.5777 | 50.4004 |
| Low Price | 100.2600 | 102.4100 | 102.5777 | 50.1500 |
| Pre-auction mid | 100.164 | 102.510 | 102.051 | 51.200 |
| Prev avg price | 100.0456 | 102.1082 | 102.2371 | 49.6005 |
| Prev low price | 99.9770 | 102.0130 | 102.2200 | 49.5010 |
| Prev mid-price | 99.928 | 102.063 | 101.953 | 49.331 |
| Previous date | 19-May-25 | 19-May-25 | 19-May-25 | 17-Mar-25 |
EGBS: Bunds Off Session Lows With Oil Down 1%; Key Support Untested
Bund futures have recovered from earlier session lows of 130.17, now -29 ticks at 130.49. Brent crude futures are down ~1% today, easing near-term concerns around the inflationary impact of an extended conflict between Israel and Iran. The pullback in Bunds from Thursday’s high is considered corrective for now, with key support at 130.12 (June 5 low).
- The German curve has steepened, with 30-year yields up 3bps and Schatz yields up 1bp.
- The 10-year OLO/Bund spread has seen a fairly contained impact from Fitch's rating downgrade on Friday, currently 0.5bps wider at 57bps. While still slightly underperforming EGB peers on the session, a downgrade did not come as a large surprise given Fitch had held Belgium on a negative outlook since March 2023.
- The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has unwound 1.5bps of Friday's 2bp widening, now back to 93.5bps with equity sentiment supported this morning despite continued Middle East tensions.
- Comments from ECB’s de Guindos and Nagel had limited impact on front-end EUR rates.
- Italian May headline HICP saw a downward revision to 1.7% (vs 1.9% flash) due to the food component, while Eurozone Q1 labour costs were revised up to 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.2% flash).
- The remainder of today’s calendar is light, leaving focus on geopolitical headline flow.
