EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.82 @ 07:08 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 171.25 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.31.
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MNI: GERMANY FINAL JULY HICP 1.8%
- GERMANY FINAL JULY HICP 1.8%
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany is due to hold auctions this week, while Finland has already held an auction. We pencil in issuance of just E6.5bln in the week, down from E24.5bln last week.
- Germany will come to the market today with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056).
- Cancelled auction: The MEF has announced that it will not hold the 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for 13 August. This is in line with recent convention and is not unexpected. The MEF noted that this decision was taken “considering the cash management activity”.
NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees E43.9bln of redemptions, of which E30.5bln is from a formerly 10-year Bund and E13.4bln from a formerly 3-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E6.3bln of which E5.5bln are German and E0.8bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Former BoJ Official Shares Policy Rate Outlook
