CANADA DATA: June Retail Sales Confirmed Solid, But July Flash Bodes Ill For Q3

A new survey from YouGov has found: “More Americans disapprove than approve of Trump's handling of all six issues asked about in this week's poll: national security (-2 net approval), immigration (-6), foreign policy (-11), jobs and the economy (-12), foreign trade (-15), and inflation/prices (-29)”

• YouGov notes: “Trump's approval on inflation and prices is nearly as low as the lowest score Joe Biden received during his presidency.”
• The report notes: “Inflation and prices is the issue Americans are most likely to name as their most important issue, with 21% picking it. That's more than choose jobs and the economy (14%), health care (10%), and immigration (9%)”
• According to Silver Bulletin's approval aggregator, Trump's approval rating on inflation is roughly -26%, suggesting that the YouGov survey is not an outlier. 

Figure 1: “Donald Trump's net approval on inflation is approaching the low mark of Joe Biden's presidency” (Biden blue line/ Trump red line)

Source: YouGov

A brief risk-off move on a comment by White House adviser Peter Navarro on Bloomberg TV referring to earlier reports of a EU-US trade deal nearing completion that would include a 15% baseline tariff - Navarro says:

•  "We don't negotiate in public. These other countries aspirationally negotiate in public to try to get us to where they want us to go. I would say even though it was reported on Bloomberg, I would take it with a grain of salt. Never assume anything is fixed until the boss says it is fixed... Let's see what happens."
• Navarro's comments weren't quite as concrete as initially feared from the headlines ("*NAVARRO ON US-EU DEAL REPORT: TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT" -bbg) so the risk-off move (worth about 10 points in the S&P) quickly reversed.
• Immediate focus is on a reported EU member state vote on tariff countermeasures Thursday in case a deal can't be reached with the US by Aug 1.

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8698 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 0.8653 @ 16:07 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 0.8626 20- day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Jul 7  
• SUP 3: 0.8561 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch is 0.8626, the 20-day EMA.