JPY: JPY Crosses - Holding Gains, CNH/JPY Tests Lows
JPY crosses are consolidating at or near their recent highs as broader risk appetite market sentiment stabilised somewhat and we approach a long weekend. CNY/JPY continues to be the outlier and is pressing its recent lows. Top trade representative Ryosei Akazawa will be looking for some early results from its US Tariff negotiations. He commented this morning that he is “ Feeling ready for US trade talks, Will negotiate with Japan’s interest in mind “ - BBG
- EUR/JPY - Overnight range 161.30 - 162.80, Asia has bounced off the lows to be dealing around 161.70. EUR/JPY stuck in the middle of its wider 155 - 165 range, looking for a catalyst to challenge this.
- GBP/JPY - Overnight range 188.56 - 189.59, Asia has drifted back to 1.8900. Sellers looking to reengage the market on bounces back towards 190.00
- AUD/JPY - Overnight range 90.60 - 91.40, Asia has drifted lower from the open breaking the overnight lows as US Equity futures come under pressure, currently dealing 90.45. The pair has failed on multiple attempts back towards 92, but expect more consolidation going into a long weekend.
- CNH/JPY - Overnight range 19.4789 - 19.6119, Asia drifted lower and then got another leg after the Yuan Fix. Another fix higher in USD/CNY at 7.2133 continues to point to the PBOC slowly managing the currency lower. CNY/JPY continues to be the outlier and bounces have been limited even in the face of a bounce in risk. The first target looks to be around the 18.70 area.
- There has been little positive follow from the earlier China data outcomes, which on balance were better than forecast, particularly IP and retail sales. Local equities are down, with focus on trade/tariff issues.
Fig 1 : CNH/JPY Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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CHINA: Property Development Declines -9.8% y/y
- Any expectations for strength in the property sector were quickly diminished with the release of the February Property Development statistics.
- Declining -9.8% y/y this represented the 32nd consecutive month of declines.
- New home sales declined -0.4% y/y with the sales area declining -3.4% y/y.
- New property values declined -2.6% y/y with area sold down by -5.1%.
- New property construction declined materially by -29.6% y/y.
- Fixed asset investments were a bright light amongst the release, rising by +4.1% y/y from +3.2% y/y the month prior.
CNH: USD/CNH Rebounds To 7.2400, Equities Off Earlier Highs Amid Mixed Data
USD/CNH is tracking higher as the market digests the Feb activity figures. We were last near 7.2390, little changed for the session, but up from earlier lows at 7.2253. Local equities are back in the red, off earlier highs, with focus remaining on consumer staple stocks amid efforts to boost the consumption outlook. These moves keep us within recent ranges for USD/CNH.
- There may have been some disappointment around the house price data, which showed renewed softness in the space for Feb. Property investment figures for Feb were also below forecast, but sales improved in YTD y/y terms, while other data showed the unemployment rate rising to 5.4%, against a 5.1% forecast.
- Still, other data showed IP and retail sales, along with fixed asset investment above forecasts.
CHINA: February Retail Sales Beat Expectations.
- China’s retail sales for February expanded +4.0%, up from +3.8% prior.
- Retail sales in rural areas jumped significantly with the best performance in three months, despite the Lunar New Year holiday.
- Unsurprisingly, restaurants, food and consumer goods were strong over the reporting period whilst larger ticket items such as household electronics were much lower than the prior month.
- To some market watchers, the buoyancy of the retail sales has been surprising given the general malaise in the property sector that impacts all.
- China’s authorities have been clear in their focus on domestic consumption as measures to preserve their recently set growth target of 5% for 2025.
