MEXICO: JP Morgan Says Tariff Threat Could Delay USMCA Renegotiation Until 2027

{WO} BONDS: Bonds have traded away from session highs following the U.S. data, as the firmer-than-expected retail sales control group and import prices data countered the initial dovish reaction to softer-than-expected headline retail sales & negative revision.

• A move back towards session highs in crude oil futures also factors in.
• Some focus on a QatarEnergy instruction for ships to wait outside the Gulf until the day before loading, as markets continue to assess energy supply risks stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict.
• Gilts continue to set up for tomorrow’s UK CPI data, where we see downside risks to the headline CPI and services readings.
• Our full data preview is here.
• 48.5bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end, with the next 25bp cut more or less fully discounted through the end of the September MPC (pricing little changed on the day).
• Tsys bull flatten on the day, Bunds twist flatten and gilt see light bear steepening.

• MNI: US APR BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.0%; SALES -0.1%
• US APR RETAIL INVENTORIES +0.0%

• MNI: US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 32 IN JUN
• US NAHB JUN SINGLE FAMILY SALES INDEX 35; NEXT 6-MO 40