JAPAN: Jiji-Komeito To Hold Talks w/Local Groups On Whether To Stay In Coalition
Jiji Press reports that the social conservative, centrist Komeito party will hold discussions on 9 October with its local organisations on the topic of whether the party should continue in its long-standing coalition agreement with the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Jiji: "In light of the LDP faction's slush fund scandal, the Komeito Party is calling for a limit on the recipients of corporate and organisational donations. It is also calling for the full extent of the scandal to be clarified." New LDP President Sanae Takaichi is said to be considering the request, but has issued no comments on the issue yet.
- Speaking at an online event earlier today, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said, "we will hold discussions with great concern," adding, "Our party's supporters are also hoping for an answer that says, 'We can form a coalition without any hard feelings.'"
- Without Komeito's backing, the LDP could face a difficult challenge in confirming Takaichi as prime minister in an extraordinary Diet session on 15 October.
- The entire National Diet votes on PM candidates in a run-off system. There has been speculation that the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party and Democratic Party for the People could look to put forward their own candidate for PM. In the House of Representatives (which ultimately decides on the PM's identity), the combined seat total for these three parties stands at 213 to the LDP's 196, making Kometio's 24 seats potentially crucial in the face of a united opposition challenge.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation Exp, Consumer Credit
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/08 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.09%, --)
- 09/08 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 09/08 1500 Consumer Credit $7.371B, $10.2B)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest
Local and political media outlets report that the result of the French no-confidence vote is not expected to be known until 1900CET (1800BST) at the earliest.
- PM Bayrou in theory has an unlimited amount of time to deliver his general policy address at 1400BST/1500CET.
- Following this address, speakers from each parliamentary group (eleven in total) will provide remarks. Speaking times depend on the number of seats each group holds in the National Assembly. From Le Figaro:
- Ensenble Group: 35 mins
- RN, DR and MODEM (Bayrou's party): 15 mins
- Other groups (fewer than 35 deputies): 10 mins:
- Speaker for non-registered deputies: 5 mins
- Following these speeches, Bayrou will then be able to speak again before votes begin.
- Le Parisien highlights that "The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote"
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Continues To Appreciate
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus today’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3623.1, a 2.236 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3440.0, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
