JGBS: JB1 Back At Cycle Low, 0% Chance Priced For Hike Next Week
In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are weaker, -13 compared to settlement levels, and hover just ab...
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ASIA STOCKS: Equity Outflows Accelerate - Taiwan -$3.8bn Last Two Days
Asian markets saw an increase in equity outflow pressures yesterday. Tech sensitive plays, particularly Taiwan, saw the brunt of the selling pressure. For Taiwan, offshore investors have sold just over $3.8bn of local stocks in the last two sessions. For South Korea we have seen just over $1.6bn in net selling. Tech/AI valuation concerns continues to see tech equity indices struggle, although the MSCI IT index posted a small rise for Tuesday. The Kospi is up modestly in the first part of Wednesday trade, but offshore investors are still net sellers per the NBUY function on BBG.
- In SEA, we saw net selling as well across the board, as broader equity sentiment was challenged yesterday. Today's focus will rest with central bank decisions in Indonesia and Thailand. The BoT is expected to cut, while BI is seen on hold, albeit in close run decision (with some analysts seeing a cut).
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -939 | -837 | -5654 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -2117 | -3238 | -7912 |
| India (USDmn)* | 64 | -591 | -17686 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | -56 | 55 | -1602 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -11 | -16 | -3273 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -33 | -97 | -4806 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | -7 | -44 | -844 |
| Total (USDmn) | -3098 | -4769 | -41777 |
| * Data Up To Dec 15 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK SELL TYH6
SELL 2945 of TYH6 traded at 112-15, post-time 11:40:25 AEST (DV01 $198,001). The contract closed at 112-16, -0-00+ from closing levels.
AUD: AUD/JPY - Holds Below 103.00 As Risk Turns Lower In Asia
The overnight range was 102.45 - 103.04, Asia is currently trading around 102.60. The pair has held below the 102.90-103.00 area which it broke through yesterday. Risk has taken a leg lower in Asia on the Venezuelan news as a short oil market gaps 1% higher. On the day look for sellers to be around the 103.00-103.30 area, if price remains capped below here it implies there could be a deeper pullback towards the 101.50-102.00 support area.
- The AUD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 68 Points
Fig 1: AUD/JPY spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
