CANADA DATA: Ivey PMI Pullback Points To Stalled Recovery

• Treasuries look to finish near steady (FVU5 -.25) to mixed, curves steeper (2s10s +3.084 at 51.452) with the short end outperforming. Rates had gapped lower midmorning: TYU5 tapped 111-26.5 low before rebounding almost as quickly, not headline or Block driven though some 60k TYU traded over short period - deemed likely error driven.
• The Sep'25 10Y futures contract currently trades 112-07 (-2.5). Treasury futures remain strong on the back of the post-NFP rally having cleared resistance into the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. This opens the May 1 high for direction at 112-23, a multi-month high. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23.
• Speculation over whether Pres Trump will announce new Russia sanctions or nominees for Fed governor or BLS head, however, tethered risk appetites somewhat. Trump reportedly wants to meet with Putin and Zelenskiy next week sometime.
• Treasury futures retreated slightly (TYU5 -7 at 112-07.5, 4.2375% yld) after the $42B 10Y note auction (91282CNT4) tailed 1bp: drawing 4.255% high yield vs. 4.245% WI; 2.35x bid-to-cover vs. 2.61x prior.
• Limited midweek data, focus turns to ECB's economic bulletin tomorrow, US weekly jobless claims & unit labor costs, and latest Chinese trade balance numbers. Fed's Bostic expected to address monetary policy shortly after BoE rate decision.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6499 @ 16:13 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness. Last week, the pair traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.

• +3,500 UXYU5 114-12, buy through 114-11.5 post time offer at 1512:00ET, DV01 $305,000.
• The 10Y ultra contract trades 114-11.5 last (-5.5)