CANADA DATA: Ivey PMI Adds More Evidence To Economic Slowdown Outlook

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has told reporters at the White House that the Trump administration is in "close correspondence" with the "interim authorities" in Venezuela. She says that it is "too premature for an election timetable for Venezuela." Adds that the US will be "selectively rolling back sanctions" on the country to facilitate oil sales.   

• Leavitt says, echoing Secrtary of State Marco Rubio's comments moments ago on Capitol Hill, "we have maximum leverage" over the interim authority, whose decisions will be dictated by the US. See: SECURITY: Rubio Outlines '3-Fold' Process To Leverage VEN Oil To Enact Change
• Leavitt asserts that a deal was struck with the interim authorities for the US to take control of sanctioned oil that was "just sitting on ships because of the effect of US quarantine."  
• Leavitt says that the oil will arrive in the US "very soon" and the Department of Energy has already "begun marketing the oil." She notes that Energy Secretary Chris Wright is in Florida today meeting with oil execs, and will have a second meeting with key oil figures at the White House on Friday to discuss "immense opportunities".
• The DOE said in a statement it has, "engaged world’s leading commodity marketers, key banks to execute and provide financial support for Venezuelan crude oil and crude products sales," per Reuters.
• Leavitt stresses that there is "a long-term plan" but declines to provide additional details, defers to Secretary Rubio. She says there are currently no US boots on the ground in Venezuela, but says Trump reserves the right to use military force if necessary. 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined to reporters a “three-fold process” to leverage control over Venezuelan oil to dictate the terms of new administration in the country, following a classified briefing with Senators. He notes that he is unable to discuss “a lot of operational details.” LINK

• Rubio says the first step is “stabilizing Venezuela” to prevent the country from “descending into chaos.” He says two tankers seized today were part of the broader “quarantine” process to leverage control over Venezuelan oil. He notes that the US is in the midst of “executing a deal to take 30 and 50 million barrels of oil," that will be sold at market rates and controlled by the US.
• Rubio notes that the second phase involves “recovery,” ensuring that Western companies have fair access to the Venezuelan market to rebuild business and civil society. He notes that the third phase is “transition,” without providing additional details.   
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said, speaking before Rubio, “we need answers” and said a number of things discussed in the briefing were “very troubling.” Schumer said he is “totally dissatisfied” with what the administration “might be doing in Greenland, as well as in Colombia, Mexico, and other countries.”
• Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), who yesterday called on Democrats to leverage a government shutdown to force through a bill curbing the Trump administration’s power to use military force abroad, described the plan as “insane” and predicted more chaos in the coming days.
• Murphy said, “they’re talking about stealing Venezuela’s oil… to leverage micromanaging the country…”
• On Greenland, Rubio declines to take military action off the table and says he will be meeting with representatives from Denmark and Greenland next week: "We will have conversations with them then."

The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index improved to 51.9 in December, rebounding from 48.4 prior (no consensus) which had marked the weakest reading since April and the first contraction since May. With such a volatile index we wouldn't take any individual month's reading too seriously, but this added to other survey evidence of a fairly solid final month in an up-and-down 2025 that was marred by trade conflict.

• There was a decent downtick in the prices gauge (joint-lowest of 2025 at 63.2) with employment rising to the best since February (53.0), which are positive signs.
• More ambiguous: inventories fell to the lowest since October 2020 which could be interpreted as a positive signal if it means future demand will require future production, though it may be cautionary if sellers are running down existing stock in the anticipated absence of demand.
• This is the fourth December private sector survey to show improvement: the CFIB small business barometer hit its best level since 2022 while S&P Global Composite PMI picked up (albeit still in contractionary territory).
• Even so with October and November data looking mixed at best in terms of both GDP and the Ivey survey's 3-month average, Q4 real GDP growth rate is likely to post a sharp slowdown from Q3's 2.6% Q/Q SAAR (and the BOC's 1.0% MPR projection) though there may be some renewed momentum going into 2026.