POWER: Italy’s Pun Index Inches Higher
Dec-17 12:24
Italy’s PUN index settled at €120.39/MWh, compared with €120.14/MWh for Wednesday’s delivery, according to GME.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 762MW during base load on Thursday, from 1.73GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 32.44GWh/h on Thursday, up from 31.57GWh/h on Wednesday.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 35.75GWh/h on Thursday, from 36.1GWh/h on Wednesday.
- Italian residential/commercial gas demand is forecast at 120.8mcm/d on Thursday, from 137.4mcm/d on Wednesday and revised down from 132.7mcm/d previously.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 12.2C on Thursday, from 11.9C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 10C.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gilts
Nov-17 12:18
- In the FI space, a strong sell-off in Bund futures last week reinforces the current bearish condition and the contract is trading closer to its cycle lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. First resistance is 128.80, the Nov 10 low.
- Gilt futures gapped sharply lower on Friday. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme.
EQUITY OPTIONS: Huge Commerzbank Option trade
Nov-17 12:01
CBK (18/12/26) 17p vs (18/06/27) 24p, trades 2.6 in 65k for the 2027.
US TSYS: Extending Highs
Nov-17 11:53
- Treasury futures extended the top end of the overnight range in the last 5 minutes, Dec'25 10Y tapped 112-24 before trading back to 112-23 (+6), 10y yield slips to 4.1173% low (-.0310).
- Treasuries last week challenged resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. This hurdle remains intact, however, a clear move above it would be a bullish signal and shift focus on resistance at 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme.
- The German 10Y Bund gained as well - but remains off overnight highs, Bbg US$ index firmer at 1217.70 (+1.42), stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +19.75 at 6,775.00).
