POWER: Italy September Power Stable W/W
The Italian September power base-load contract is broadly stable on the week, tracking moves in EU g...
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SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 1: $39.132 - High Jul 14
- PRICE: $37.9133 @ 08:15 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: $36.750 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $35.531 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
- SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a strong impulsive bull cycle remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The metal on Jul 11 cleared key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.750, the 20-day EMA.
SWAPS: Citi Recommend SONIA 3m 10s30s Conditional Bull Steepener
Citi recommend a SONIA 3m 10s30s conditional bull steepener in costless format.
- They highlight ongoing macro and fiscal uncertainty as the driver of this view.
- They look to “take advantage of the (slightly) negative forward-spot roll as well as the positive vol pick-up to forwards to establish 10s30s steepeners via receivers. The curve’s positive carry should also prove valuable in a scenario where the BoE delivers just (or less than) what’s priced in, keeping rate volatility in check”.
SWEDEN: June PES Data Indicates Labour Market Conditions Are Still Subdued
The Swedish unemployment claims rate ticked up a tenth to 7.1% on a rounded basis in June, after seven consecutive months at 7.0%. Labour demand metrics within the report improved slightly relative to May, but the broader signal is still that the labour market is subdued. This will likely contribute to one more Riksbank cut this year, with analysts generally leaning towards a move in September. However, it is still too early to fully rule out a cut in August.
- Vacancies rose to 80k from 77k in May, but remain down 13% Y/Y. This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio was steady at 0.21, the lowest since March 2021.
- Redundancy notices fell back to 5.1k, after rising notably to 7.9k in May. Some analysts had pointed to the Northvolt bankruptcy as a potential driver of the May increase. Still, the 3mma of redundancies remains at 6.2k, above the 4.8-5.2k seen between December and April.
