POWER: Italy September Power Falls on EU Gas
Italy front-month power is trending lower with losses in EU gas prices.
- Italy Base Power SEP 25 down 0.7% at 112.29 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas SEP 25 down 0.3% at 33.885 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 70.78 EUR/MT
- TTF front month extends the decline from a high of almost €35.5/MWh last week with steady imports and healthy storage injections set against warm weather and LNG supply risks. Increasing competition for LNG cargoes was supportive last week while focus remains on threats of secondary tariffs/sanctions on Russia.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up from Friday to remain below normal this week, after which temperatures will rise above normal.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 24.8C on Tuesday, from 23.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 25.7C.
- The PUN index rose to €112.16/MWh for Monday’s delivery, from €89.81/MWh a day earlier.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 3.09GW during base load on Tuesday, slightly up from 3.02GW on Monday. Solar PV output is forecast at 12.06GW during peak load on Tuesday, up from 11.04GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 29.94GWh/h on Tuesday, up from 29.27GWh/h on Monday, Reuters data showed.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 19.85GWh/h on Tuesday, slightly up from 19.35GWh/h on Monday, Reuters data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at -287GWh on 18 August, compared with -218GWh previously forecasted, Bloomberg data showed.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3607 @ 16:12 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6548 @ 16:05 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 0.6521 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6468/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.61 High Jul 03
- PRICE: 170.22 @ 16:04 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 169.04 Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 167.87 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.66 50-day EMA
EURJPY traded higher on Thursday resulting in a print above 170.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for extension. This would open 170.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.87, the 20-day EMA.
