POWER: Italy Q3 Power Trends Lower on Gas
Apr-30 07:38
The Italian front-quarter power contract is edging lower with losses in EU gas prices, while the rem...
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GILTS: Rallying On Wider Risk-Off Flow, Bullish Technical Threat Increases
Mar-31 07:28
Gilts through last week’s highs on the wider risk-off price action stemming from U.S. tariff worry ahead of “Liberation Day”.
- Futures peak at 92.10 before fading back below 92.00, still up the best part of 50 ticks on the day.
- Note that the short-term technical trend in the contract remains bearish, but the bullish threat has increased.
- Initial Fibonacci resistance (92.17) protects trendline resistance drawn off the March 4 high (91.55).
- Yields 2.5-4.0bp lower, 10s outperform on the curve.
- GBP STIRs still around levels we flagged ahead of the gilt open, as most of the early dovish adjustment holds.
- The DMO will hold its consultations regarding FQ1 (April to June) issuance at 15:30BST (investors) and 17:00BST (GEMMs) today.
- We set out our expectations for gilt issuance across FY25/26 in our UK Issuance Deep Dive publication.
- Elsewhere, only lower tier UK economic data is due on Monday, which will leave macro cues at the fore for much of the session.
EFSF ISSUANCE: New 5-year: Guidance
Mar-31 07:25
- EUR Benchmark of the new 5y May-30 MS+32 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act, long first
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAT6
- Maturity: May 7, 2030
- Format: Reg S, bearer, 0% rw
- Issuer: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
- Bookrunners: Citi, CA-CIB (B&D), SocGen
- Settlement: April 7, 2025
- Timing: May price today.
Details via Bloomberg
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
Mar-31 07:24
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.501 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $34.355 @ 08:23 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: $33.304 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.665 - Low Mar 21
- SUP 3: $32.483/31.814 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 4: $30.815 - Low Feb 28 and key support
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The rally resulted in a breach of $34.233, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $33.3004, the 20-day EMA.
