POWER: Italy Power Curve Trends Lower on Gas
The Italian power curve is trending lower on Tuesday with the extended pullback in EU gas prices.
- Italy Base Power MAY 25 down 3.1% at 87.26 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas MAY 25 down 3.2% at 31.355 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 64.32 EUR/MT
- EU gas prices are extending Monday’s decline after Putin’s declaration of a 72-hour truce in Ukraine, which raises prospects of a peace agreement, adding to pressure amid steady LNG imports to Europe and muted demand in Asia. Uncertainty still surrounds global demand given ongoing US trade negotiations, while Norwegian outages are set to rise.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to remain above the seasonal normal for most of the forecast period, with small dip in temperatures around 6-7 May.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast to rise to 17.6C on Wednesday, from 17C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 15.8C.
- The PUN index decreased to €81.87/MWh for Tuesday’s delivery, down from €94.10/MWh on Monday.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast to edge down to 1.3GW during base load on Wednesday, from 1.42GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast to decline to 19.25GWh/h on Wednesday, from 22.46GWh/h on Tuesday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast to decrease to 27.29GWh on Wednesday, from 30.21GWh on Tuesday according to Reuters.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised up on the day to end at 495GWh on 13 May, from 450GWh forecasted a day earlier, Bloomberg data showed.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
