POWER: Italy October Power to Open Rangebound
The Italian front-month power base load contract is expected to trade sideways, once liquid, with rangebound moves in EU gas prices, while forecasts suggest warmer weather going into October.
- Italy Base Power OCT 25 closed up 0.5% at 107.97 EUR/MWh on 23 Sept
- Italy Power Cal 26 closed up 0.6% at 105.75 EUR/MWh on 23 Sept
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0% at 32.27 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.3% at 76.56 EUR/MT
- TTF front month holds steady after a small gain yesterday and within the €31.6/MWh to €33.1/MWh range from the last week.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to remain slightly below the average until the end of this week before rising back above normal.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 19.7C on Thursday, down from 20.4C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 20.1C.
- The PUN index declined to €114.27/MWh for Wednesday’s delivery, down from €116.20/MWh for Tuesday’s delivery.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 2.08GW during base load on Thursday, down from 2.45GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 9.52GW during peak load on Thursday, up from 6.42GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 26.2GWh/h on Thursday, down from 27.52GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 33.7GWh/h on Thursday, broadly stable from 33.8GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- Italian residential/commercial gas consumption is forecast at 43.6mcm/d on Thursday, up from 41.1mcm/d on Wednesday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at 2.06TWh on 8 October, from 2.27TWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 1: 1.3925 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 1.3829 @ 08:07 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 1.3797 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3771/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 22
- SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
- SUP 4: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
Gains last week in USDCAD and the breach of resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, continues to highlight a bullish phase. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, strengthening the current uptrend. An extension higher would signal scope for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3771, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Finds Support
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6524 High Aug 18
- PRICE: 0.6498 @ 08:03 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD rallied Friday and for now, the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The rally signals the end of the recent corrective phase. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.6625, the Aug 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break would resume the bear leg.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bull Phase Intact
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
- PRICE: 6479.50 @ 07:25 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6298.61 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6298.61, the 50-day EMA.
