POWER: Italy November Power Tracks 1% W/W Increase
Oct-17 07:33
Italy November power is tracking a weekly net increase of just below 1%, tracking moves in EU gas markets.
- Italy Base Power NOV 25 down 0.6% at 112.2 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.02% at 77.32 EUR/t CO2e
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 0.2% at 31.425 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €32.73/MWh and net relatively unchanged on the week with steady fundamentals set against the forecast of colder weather in the last week of October.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to remain below normal until early next week, with above normal temperatures next week. Mean temperatures are set to decline towards the end of October/early November.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 16.3C on Saturday, from 16.7C on Friday and below the seasonal average of 17.8C.
- The PUN index declined to €116.85/MWh for Friday’s delivery, from €121.82/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 812MW during base load on Saturday, from 1.73GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast at 7.48GW during peak load on Saturday, from 6.38GW on Sunday according to SpotRenewables.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 812MW to 3.81GW during base load over 18-25 October.
- Residual load is forecast to average 23.72GWh/h next week, Reuters data showed.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 22.13GWh/h on Saturday, down from 26.39GWh/h on Friday.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast 27.24GWh/h on Saturday, from 32.26GWh/h on Friday.
- Italian residential/commercial gas consumption is forecast at 51mcm/d on Saturday from 51.6mcm/d on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised up to end at -878GWh on 31 October, from -1.38TWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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EQUITIES: Updated Roll Pace
Sep-17 07:26
EQUITY ROLL PACE: December has been the front Month for US already this Week, we'll look for Europe to also switch into Tomorrow.
As expected some Desks have favoured to Roll, Close positions ahead of the Fed.
US:
- ESA: 74%.
- NQA: 59% (below pace).
- DOW: 73%.
EU (As of Yesterday):
- VGA: 67%.
- Banks: 70%.
- Stoxx600: 73%.
- Dax: 60%.
- FTSE: 67%.
STIR: Euribor Implied Terminal Rate Back At Early April Levels
Sep-17 07:17
- The Euribor implied terminal rate (associated with the ERM6 contract) is currently 1.95%. This level is little changed since the ECB’s September decision on Thursday, but up almost 20bps compared to just before the hawkish leaning July decision. Further out the curve, implied rates are little changed relative to July.
- Incoming data will determine whether terminal rate expectations are appropriate, while pricing further out the curve will likely be dictated by the implementation and associated multipliers of increased German fiscal spending.
- There’s little change in EUR STIRs relative to yesterday’s close. ECB-dated OIS price ~11.5bps of easing through July 2026.
- In an interview with Die Welt, ECB Vice President de Guindos emphasised that “if the situation changes, we [the ECB] will adjust our stance accordingly”. While not giving much explicit away, it seems de Guindos is more focused on downside activity/inflation risks than other members of the Executive Board (e.g. Lagarde and Schnabel).
- A reminder that de Guindos will appear in a public MNI Connect event tomorrow at 0900BST.
- Today’s regional calendar includes the ECB’s latest forward-looking wage tracker, which is expected to continue signalling a deceleration in compensation pressures. Final August inflation is also due.
- Several ECB speakers are scheduled, most interestingly the new Bank of Portugal Governor Pereira at 1100BST.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback
Sep-17 07:13
- RES 4: $43.272 - 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $43.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $42.972 - High Sep 16
- PRICE: $41.883 @ 8:12 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: $40.635 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.042 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal traded higher last Friday, delivering a fresh cycle high. The extension earlier this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.635, the 20-day EMA.
