POWER: Italy November Power to Edge Down on Gas
Oct-22 07:16
Italy November power is expected to open lower with small losses in EU gas prices, with easing wind generation and cooler weather form next week capping losses.
- Italy Base Power NOV 25 closed down 0.2% at 111.9 EUR/MWh on 21 Oct
- Italy Power Cal 26 closed up 0.4% at 104.38 EUR/MWh on 21 Oct
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 0.4% at 32.07 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0% at 79.61 EUR/MT
- TTF front month is softer today to partially reverse some of the gains seen yesterday.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to drop slightly lower later this week and next week before moving back in line with the average from November.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 18.9C on Thursday, from 17.6C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 17.3C.
- The PUN index increased to €128.01/MWh for Wednesday’s delivery, from €127.63/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 4.35GW during base load on Thursday, from 1.76GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 271MW to 6.45GW during base load over 23-31 October.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 25.32GWh/h on Thursday, from 27.11GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 32.61GWh/h on Thursday, from 32.56GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
- Italian residential/commercial gas demand is forecast at 59.3mcm/d on Thursday, from 60.9mcm/d on Wednesday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been broadly stable at -2.22TWh as of 5 November, Bloomberg data showed.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support For Now
Sep-22 07:07
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3848 High Sep 15
- PRICE: 1.3800 @ 08:07 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A sharp sell-off in USDCAD early last week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Sep-22 06:56
Gilt Calls, 90.61/90.72.
EQUITIES: Cash Opening Calls
Sep-22 06:56
EU Cash Opening calls: Estox 50: +0.08%, Dax: -0.20%, CAC: +0.07%, FTSE +0.11%, SMI +0.09%.
