POWER: Italy November Power Rises
Oct-23 07:31
Italy November power is trending higher, following gains in EU gas prices driven by the announcement of new sanctions against Russia.
- Italy Base Power NOV 25 up 1% at 111.9 EUR/MWh
- Italy Power Cal 26 closed down 0.4% at 104 EUR/MWh on 22 Oct
- TTF Gas NOV 25 up 1.8% at 32.33 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.8% at 79.07 EUR/MT
- TTF front month follows a rally in oil as US and Europe announce new sanctions on Russia. US restrictions will be imposed against Lukoil and state-run Rosneft, two of the largest producers, aimed at reducing revenues for Russia’s war. The EU adopted another package of sanctions on Russia including a ban on LNG imports from 2027.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to drop slightly below normal next week before rising back above the average.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 17.4C on Friday, from 18.6C on Thursday and slightly above the average of 17.2C.
- The PUN index declined to €115.53/MWh for Thursday’s delivery, from €128.01/MWh for Wednesday’s delivery.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 6.2GW during base load on Friday, from 4.54GW on Thursday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 436MW to 6.2GW during base load over 24 October and 1 November.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 22.14GWh/h on Friday, from 24.88GWh/h on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 32.89GWh/h on Friday, from 32.61GWh/h on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
- Italian residential/commercial gas demand is forecast at 59.7mcm/d on Friday, from 59.2mcm/d on Thursday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been broadly stable to end at -2.2TWh on 6 November, Bloomberg data showed.
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MNI: RIKSBANK CUTS POLICY RATE 25BP TO 1.75%
Sep-23 07:30
- MNI: RIKSBANK CUTS POLICY RATE 25BP TO 1.75%
EGB SYNDICATION: DDA: 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL: Books in excess of E10bln
Sep-23 07:27
- Guidance: 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 19.5 to 22.5bps (prelim initial spread guidance was +18.5 to 22.5bps)
- Size: E4.0-5.0bln will be on offer (MNI assume takeup at the top of the target range)
- Books in excess of E10bln
- Maturity: 15 January 2056
- ISIN: NL0015002P70
- The preliminary initial spread guidance is 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 18.5 to 22.5bps.
- Books will open at 9:00BST / 10:00CET
- MNI expect books to close between 10:00BST / 11:00CET and 11:00BST / midday CET.
FRANCE DATA: PMIs miss expectations; political uncertainty and prices both weigh
Sep-23 07:21
The French September flash PMIs came in lower than expected for all: Services at 48.9, 0.7 points below consensus (49.6 consensus, 49.8 prior) and 2.0 points below consensus for manufacturing at 48.1 (50.1 consensus, 50.4 prior), composite output 48.4, 1.3 points below consensus (49.7 consensus, 49.8 prior). Political uncertainty was cited as a concern by many, but prices were also notable for being lower across both inputs and outputs with the first fall in output prices since May.
- "Private sector business activity fell at the quickest rate in five months."
- "Subdued customer demand was noted as a drag on activity levels in both sectors, with survey data signalling a sixteenth successive reduction in total new orders."
- "In some cases, panel members attributed lower client interest to domestic political uncertainty. Export conditions remained unsupportive, although the rate of contraction in new export business slowed fractionally since August to its weakest for three months."
- "Political turbulence in France led some panellists to lower their expectations for business activity, while others foresee challenging demand conditions and competitive pressures as risks to the outlook."
- Input costs at a 5-month low.
- "Both manufacturers and service providers recorded weaker rises in operating expenses."
- "As for prices charged, both sub-sectors were aligned with discounting in September amid reports of strong competition. At the composite level, this marked the first month of lower selling prices since May."
