POWER: Italy Front-Month Power Trends Higher
The Italian front-month base-load power contract is edging higher on Friday, tracking gains in EU gas prices, while forecasts suggest low wind generation next week. Italy front-month power is tracking small weekly gains, despite losses in gas prices.
- Italy Base Power DEC 25 up 0.8% at 112.22 EUR/MWh
- Italy Power Cal 26 closed down 0.5% at 103.31 EUR/MWh on 30 Oct
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.7% at 31.585 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.3% at 78.93 EUR/MT
- TTF Dec25 is holding just above the previous close but set for a net weekly decline and near the monthly low amid mild weather and healthy import supplies.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to remain above normal until early next week, before briefly dropping below normal, with temperatures rising back above normal towards mid-November.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 16.8C on Saturday and at 16.9C on Sunday, from 17.5C on Friday and above the seasonal normal.
- The PUN index increased to €124.53/MWh, from €117.17/MWh for Thursday’s delivery.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 624MW during base load on Saturday and at 1.19GW on Sunday, from 766MW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 389MW to 1.19GW during base load on 1-9 October.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 19.87GWh/h on Saturday and at 19.69GWh/h on Sunday, from 29.28GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 24.39GWh/h on Saturday and at 24.15GWh/h on Sunday, from 33.18GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Italian residential/commercial gas demand is forecast at 50.6mcm/d on Saturday and at 52.5mcm/d on Sunday, from 63.5mcm/d on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at -1.96TWh on 14 November, from -1.79GWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 3.12bn at 1.1750/1.1775.
EURUSD 2.85bn at 1.1785/1.1800 (thu).
AUDUSD 1.87bn at 0.6600 (thu).
AUDUSD 1.6bn at 0.6600 (fri).
EURUSD 1.02bn 1.1750 and 1.69bn at 1.1820 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.1700 (1.74bn), 1.1710 (619mln), 1.1735 (350mln), 1.1750 (1.51bn), 1.1760 (797mln), 1.1775 (811mln), 1.1791 (460mln), 1.1800 (1.17bn).
- USDJPY: 146.50 (1.09bn), 146.85 (286mln), 147.50 (687mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3900 (489mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6600 (869mln).
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Calendar Call Spread
ERM6/H6 98.31/98.43cs calendar, bought the June for 1.25 in 5k.
EGBS: Flat Start For EGB/Bund Spreads, Issuance & Equity Weakness Eyed
A subdued start to trade in EGB/Bund spreads, with any issuance-related pressure seen on the German curve countered by equity weakness when it comes to spreads. The major 10-Year spreads trade within 0.5bp of yesterday’s closing levels as a result.
