POWER: Italy August Power Trades Sideways W/W
Jul-04 07:22
The Italian August power base-load contract is broadly stable on the week as of Thursday’s close with gains in EU gas markets and forecast for warm weather weighed against forecasts for windier weather.
- Italy Base Power AUG 25 closed down 0.1% at 114.64 EUR/MWh on 3 July
- TTF Gas AUG 25 up 0.2% at 33.68 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 71.7 EUR/MT
- TTF front month is on track for a small net gain on the week with the forecast of hot weather in mid-July expected to boost cooling demand again. European LNG imports remain healthy amid ongoing muted demand in Asia.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggested mean temperatures have been revised up on the day and are set to remain above normal through the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 28.8C on Saturday and at 28.1C on Sunday, compared with 28.C on Friday – above normal.
- The PUN index rose to €126.47/MWh for Friday’s delivery, compared with €121.59/MWh a day earlier.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 934MW on Saturday during base load and at 2.08GW on Sunday, from 823MW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast to be relatively high next week at 1.17GW to 4.29GW during base load.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 36.38GWh/h on Saturday and at 30.73GWh/h on Sunday, from 43.42GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 29.18GWh/h on Saturday and at 22.56GWh/h on Sunday, down from 36.13GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at -420GWh as of 18 July, compared with -283GWh a day earlier, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italian hydropower reserves last week remained flat on the week at 3.47TWh. However, stocks flipped to a deficit to last year and to the five-year average.
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MNI: SPAIN MAY SERVICES PMI 51.3 (52.9 FCAST, 53.4 APRIL)
Jun-04 07:17
- SPAIN MAY SERVICES PMI 51.3 (52.9 FCAST, 53.4 APRIL)
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
Jun-04 07:16
- RES 4: $35.728 - 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
- RES 3: $35.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $34.789 - High Jun 2
- PRICE: $34.435 @ 08:15 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: $32.859/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Monday confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The rally resulted in the breach of a number of important resistance points. This signals scope for an extension towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would mark an important medium-term bullish development. Key short-term support is at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal.
EGB SYNDICATION: Italy Dual-Tranche New 5y / 10y Green Tap: Books Open
Jun-04 07:14
New 5-year:
- Size: EUR Benchmark, MNI expects E7-10bln
- Guidance: BTPS 2.95% 07/2030 +10bps area
- Maturity: 1 October 2030
- Coupon: Fixed, S/A ACT/ACT. (short first)
- ISIN: TBA
10-year Green Tap:
- Size: E5bln WNG
- Guidance: BTPS 0.95% 03/2037 +9bps area
- Maturity: 30 October 2037
- Coupon: 4.05%, S/A ACT/ACT (42 days accrued)
- ISIN: IT0005596470
For both:
- Issuer: Republic of Italy
- Ratings: Baa3/BBB+/BBB/BBBH/BBB+ (pos/stab/pos/pos/stab) by Moody's/S&P/Fitch/DBRS/Scope
- Settlement: 11 June 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNPP / BofA / CACIB / Santander / Societe Generale
- Format: Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali (RegS in dematerialised book entry form), 144A eligible, CACs
- Denoms: EUR 1k + EUR 1k
- Timing: Books open, Today's business
