POWER: Italian Power Demand to Drop to 30.2GW in October
Oct-01 12:40
Italian power consumption is forecast to decline to 30.2GW in October, down from 31.8GW in September and 0.5GW below 2024 levels, BNEF data showed.
- Seasonally cooler weather will weigh on cooling demand in October.
- Mean temperatures are forecast to decline to 14.9GW this month versus the 10-year average of 17.1C.
- Wind generation in Italy is forecast to rise by 0.3GW on the month to 2.1GW in October, while below-average wind speeds are expected to limit increases.
- Italian hydropower generation is expected to rise by 0.3GW on the month to 3.9GW this month, with gains limited by forecasts for below-normal precipitation.
- BNEF forecasts precipitation to reach 90.7mm this month, below the 10-year normal of 105.1mm.
- Italian power prices are forecast at €108/MWh in October and at €111/MWh in winter 2025/25, revised down by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, on the month.
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BONDS: EUREX Roll Pace
Sep-01 12:31
EUREX ROLL Pace as off Friday:
- Buxl: 18%.
- Bund: 17%.
- Bobl: 24%.
- Schatz: 16%.
- BTP: 10% (below pace).
- BTS: 16%.
- OAT: 18%.
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 1-7 September
Sep-01 12:20
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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.
Monday 1 September:
- European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to hold talks with Romanian President Nicusor Dan and PM Ilie Bolojan following a visit to Lithuania for talks with President Gitanas Nauseda and a visit to the Belarusian border. The trip has garnered significant attention after the EU confirmed that von der Leyen’s plane had been subject to an interference attack, with GPS navigation services at a Bulgarian airport disabled as her plane was set to land on 30 August. Russia is suspected to have carried out the operation, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied this to the FT.
- United Kingdom: Parliament returns from its summer recess for a short session ahead of the party conference recess that starts on 16 September. Focus during this session remains on when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announces a date for the budget, and speculation on what tax increases and/or spending cuts will be included.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Irish Inflation Accelerates With Core Also Firmer
Sep-01 12:15
Irish HICP headline inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8% Y/Y in August, its highest rate since April. It came with monthly inflation of 0.3% M/M. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food inflation (i.e. a proxy for core) also firmed two tenths to 1.9% Y/Y in August.
- Energy inflation of -0.1% Y/Y marked a slight increase from the -0.3% Y/Y in July. It came as energy prices fell -0.3% M/M, similar to expectations for August on a Eurozone-wide basis more broadly.
- Food meanwhile accelerated to a firm 5.0% Y/Y, up from 4.6% in July.
- "Transport costs have fallen by 0.5% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to August 2025", the statistics office adds.
