TURKEY: Italian, Libyan Leaders Meet w/Erdogan For Migration & Security Talks
Aug-01 11:27
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to host Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and PM of the internationally-recognised Tripoli-based Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul for talks on regional security in the Mediterranean and efforts to stem migrant flows to Europe.
- A GNU press release ahead of the 14:30 local time (07:30ET, 12:30BST) trilateral meeting said 'the summit will address strategic issues of common interest, including economic cooperation and development in the Mediterranean region, the strengthening of partnership in the energy and oil sector, as well as the issue of irregular migration and its impact on regional security and stability'.
- Erdogan will also hold a bilateral meeting with Meloni. This follows on from the fourth intergovernmental summit between Italy and Turkey that took place in Rome in April.
- The stability of Libya remains of crucial importance for both Turkey and Italy. For Italy, Libya is the major source of illegal immigration into the country, with Il Sole 24 Ore reporting in 2025 to date "around 21,000 migrants arriving in Italy, an increase of 80% compared to last year."
- Erdogan is looking to maintain Turkey's prominent role as a power broker within the region. Having maintained support for Al-Dbeibah's GNU, Erdogan is also seeking to push the rival Government of National Stability (GNS) of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to ratify a maritime border deal that could provide Turkish O&G firms extensive exploration rights in Libyan waters.
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Historical bullets
SOFR: BLOCK: SOFR Red Pack
Jul-02 11:15
- 3,000 SOFR Red packs (SFRU6-SFRM7) -0.020 at 0709:13ET - likely swap-tied buyer with spds running tighter in the short end
US DATA: A Small Uplift In Mortgage Activity As Rates Ease
Jul-02 11:14
- MBA composite mortgage applications increased 2.7% (sa) last week after 1.1%, -2.6% and a strong 12.5% in the previous three weeks.
- Refis led the latest increase, rising 6.5% after 3.0%, as new purchase applications underperformed for a fifth consecutive week with 0.1% after -0.4%.
- The usual reminder of relative levels, however: composite applications stand at 55% of 2019 averages, consisting of 64% for new purchases and 44% for refis.
- The latest increase was helped by a 9bp decline in the 30Y conforming rate to 6.79% for its lowest since the week to Apr 4, marking a 13bp decline over the past month.
- With the average 10Y swap rate over the week dropping 12bp, the 30Y mortgage rate to 10Y spread widened further to 305bps (+3bp) for its highest since the week to May 9. That’s still below the 315bp in late April/early May but above the 285bp averaged in Q1 in a net tightening in conditions, potentially reflecting some more pessimistic looking housing data more broadly.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gilts Remains Intact For Now
Jul-02 11:09
- In the FI space, recent weakness in Bund futures resulted in a print below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point would highlight a bearish threat, undermine the recent bullish theme, and signal scope for an extension towards 129.30, the May 22 low. The contract has recovered from Monday's low. Key resistance has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme. First resistance is at 131.33, the Jun 20 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play, for now, and today’s move lower is considered corrective. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 22. This would open 94.00. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. First support lies at 92.78, the 20-day EMA.
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