POWER: Italian Hydro Stocks Fall Above 5-Year Average Rate

Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 42– declined above the five-year average rate by 0.08TWh to 2.71TWh of capacity. Forecasts for an increase in precipitation this week is expected to boost inflows into reserves. 

• Stocks were on average stable in calendar week 42 in the past five years.
• Stocks widened the deficit to the five-year average to 0.43TWh, from 0.34TWh the week prior.
• The deficit to last year’s level widened to 0.7TWh, from 0.63TWh the week before.
• Power demand in Italy last week edged up by 279MW to 30.1GW.
• Hydropower output from pumped storage last week edged down by 106WM to 289MW, while output from reservoirs was largely stable at 425MW. Run-of-river hydro generation declined by 295MW on the week to 2.03GW.
• Gas-fired power generation last week rebounded by 1.86GW to 13.67GW.
• Solar PV output declined by 1.04GW on the week to 3.24GW, while wind generation fell by 1.64GW to 1.19GW.
• There was no precipitation in Torino near Italy’s hydro-intensive region last week.
• Looking ahead, the latest Bloomberg ECMWF weather forecast for Torino suggests precipitation is forecast to rise to 26mm this week, above the seasonal average of 7.5mm.
• The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures this week are forecast between 16.2C and 18.9C – largely in line with the average.
• Italy’s hydro balance is forecast to end this week at -1.43TWh. The balance is forecast to fall to -2.28TWh as of 6 November.
• Wind output in Italy for the remainder of this week (Thu-Sun) is forecast at 3.98GW to 6.45GW during base load according to SpotRenewables.