EU HEALTHCARE: Ipsen: Q3 Results (IPNFP; Baa3/BBB-/NR)

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5558.30 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger  
• RES 1: 5505.00 High Sep 19     
• PRICE: 5476.00 @ 06:35 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 5405.03/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

• Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction on Wednesday with E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330), E1.00-1.25bln of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005657348) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 7-year 2.50% Nov-32 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27014) on offer.
• Italy will conclude issuance for the month on Friday with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. Details will be confirmed on Tuesday. We expect the 2.70% Oct-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005654642) to be on offer alongside a final reopening of the 3.60% Oct-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005648149). However, there is a chance that a new 10-year BTP is launched, and also a good chance that there is an off-the-run 10-year BTP on offer alongside the 3.60% Oct-35 BTP. The Apr-34 CCTeu has been on offer at every auction since its launch in May.

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see redemptions of E7.1bln, E6.0bln from a formerly 10-year ESM bond and E1.1bln from a formerly 10-year LATVIA bond. Coupon payments for the week total E3.0bln of which E2.8bln are French. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at a positive E24.9bln versus negative E17.9bln last week.

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8744 High Aug 7
• RES 1: 0.8729 High Sep 19   
• PRICE: 0.8711 @ 06:47 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 0.8646/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Recent weakness in EURGBP has been corrective and last week’s recovery confirmed the end of the corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8646, the 50-day EMA.