FRANCE DATA: IP Positive Almost Solely Due to Transport Equipment Rebound
France IP rebounded in Jan at 0.5% M/M (0.4% cons, -0.5% prior, revised up 0.2ppt), but almost entirely due to a strong rebound in transport equipment (all other manufacturing categories saw negative growth M/M).
- INSEE notes "Over the course of a month, manufacturing output rebounded solely due to the recovery in the manufacture of transport equipment. In January 2026, manufacturing output rebounded, driven solely by the sharp increase in the manufacture of transport equipment (+9.9% after -12.8%), particularly in other transport equipment (+19.1% after -20.1%) and more specifically in the aerospace industry."
- We have noted sharp moves in the "other transport equipment" category consistently driving the headline number in recent months.
- "Conversely, production declined in all other sectors: it contracted in"other industrial products (metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc.)" (-0.9% after +1.2%), the food processing industries (-0.8% after +1.9%), the manufacture of electrical, electronic and computer equipment (-0.5% after +1.9%), and it fell again in coking and refining (-3.4% after -0.9%). In the extractive, energy, and water industries, production remained stable, following a 0.1% increase the previous month."
- Manufacturing production grew 0.6% M/M (-0.7% prior, revised up 0.1ppt), influenced even more strongly by the transport (and "other transport equipment") sector.
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GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $5451.0 - High Jan 30
- RES 3: $5314.00- 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback
- RES 2: $5139.9 - 61.8%retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback
- RES 1: $4999.2- 50.0% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback
- PRICE: $4916.8 @ 07:33 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: $4661.0 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $4403.0 - Low Feb 2
- SUP 3: $4274.7 - Low Dec 31 ‘25 and a key support
- SUP 4: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9
Gold has recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp sell-off from last week’s high still highlights a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, marks an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at $4551.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $4274.7, the Dec 31 ‘25 low. Initial resistance is 4999.2, a Fibonacci retracement.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYH6 111.00 Puts Lifted
TYH6 111.00 puts paper paid 0-10 on 3K over a couple of clips.
WTI TECHS: (H6) Bearish Correction
- RES 4: $71.66 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 7 - 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $69.80 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: $68.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $66.48 - High Jan 30
- PRICE: $61.93 @ 07:15 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: $61.01/59.74 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $58.53 - Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: $55.65 - Low Ja 7
- SUP 4: $54.56 - Low Apr 9 ‘25 and a key support
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, Monday’s impulsive sell-off highlights the beginning of a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $61.01. The 50-day EMA lies at $59.74. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high.
