EM LATAM CREDIT: Industrias Penoles SAB (PENOMX; NR /BBB neg /BBB) 1Q Earnings
May-01 17:34
Strong earnings: Supportive
• Strong results from Mexico gold and silver mining holding company Penoles with net sales up 29% and EBITDA growing 220% YoY driven by gold and silver prices up 38% over that time.
• We are less enthusiastic about the profit strength as it came primarily from increase in prices and less from operational improvements or growth in production.
• Gold mining production was up 4.8% while silver mining was down 12.8% YoY. As a biproduct of their precious metal operations the company also mines for base metals such as lead, copper and zinc. Production of those metals was generally lower while realized prices were higher.
• Overall cost of sales fell with FX depreciation helping production costs located primarily in Mexico.
• Cash increased USD428mn sequentially while gross debt was about unchanged so with the large increase in EBITDA, net leverage improved more in line with rating agency expectations which is important because S&P cited higher leverage as the main reason for their negative outlook.
• PENOMX 2050 bonds were last quoted T+223 bps, 20 bps wider MTD and 28 bps wider YTD.
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GLOBAL: Economic Data Calendar 01/04/2025
Apr-01 17:32
| Date | GMT/Local | Period | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
| 02/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | Feb | AU | Total Dwellings Approved m/m | 6.3 | -1.5 | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | Apr | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1100/0700 | 28-Mar | US | MBA Mortgage Applications w/w | -2 | -- | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1215/0815 | Mar | US | ADP Private Payrolls | 77 | 119 | (k) |
| 02/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Feb | US | Durable Goods Orders (Final) | 3.3 | 0.9 | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Feb | US | Factory New Orders | 1.7 | 0.4 | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Feb | US | Factory Orders ex-transport | 0.2 | -- | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Feb | US | Non-Defense Capital Goods New Orders ex Aircraft | 0.9 | -0.3 | % |
| 02/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | 28-Mar | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 02/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | 28-Mar | US | Distillate Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 02/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | 28-Mar | US | Gasoline Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 03/04/2025 | 2200/0900 | Mar | AU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | 51.2 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 2200/0900 | Mar | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI | 51.3 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Job Vacancies Public and Private, SA Q/Q % change | 4.2 | -- | (k) | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/1130 | Feb | AU | Trade Balance | 5620 | 5400 | AUD (m) |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/0930 | Mar | JP | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | 49.5 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0030/0930 | Mar | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI | 48.5 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | Mar | CN | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | 51.4 | 51.5 | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0145/0945 | Mar | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI | 51.5 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | Mar | CH | CPI Core y/y | 0.9 | 0.9 | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | Mar | CH | CPI EU Harmonized m/m | 0.1 | -- | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | Mar | CH | CPI EU Harmonized y/y | 0.1 | -- | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | Mar | CH | CPI m/m | 0.6 | 0.1 | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0630/0830 | Mar | CH | CPI y/y | 0.3 | 0.4 | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0700/0300 | Mar | TR | CPI m/m | 2.27 | 3 | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0715/0915 | Mar | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0715/0915 | Mar | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0745/0945 | Mar | IT | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0745/0945 | Mar | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0750/0950 | Mar | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0750/0950 | Mar | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | Mar | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0755/0955 | Mar | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | Mar | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | Mar | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | Mar | UK | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | Mar | UK | S&P / CIPS UK Final Comp PMI | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | Feb | EU | PPI m/m | 0.8 | -- | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | Feb | EU | PPI y/y | 1.8 | 2.8 | % |
| 03/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | 04-Apr | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 29-Mar | US | Continuing Claims | 1856 | 1880 | (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 29-Mar | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 224 | 225 | (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 29-Mar | US | Prev Continuing Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 29-Mar | US | Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Corn Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Corn Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Soy Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Soy Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Wheat Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | 27-Mar | US | Wheat Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | CA | Trade Balance | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | CA | Trade Balance | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | US | Previous Trade Deficit Revised | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Feb | US | Trade Balance | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 03/04/2025 | 1345/0945 | Mar | US | S&P Global Services Index (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1345/0945 | Mar | US | S&P Global US Final Comp PMI | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | US | Business Activity/Production Index | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | US | ISM Services Employment Index | 53.9 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | US | ISM Services Index | 53.5 | 53.1 | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | US | ISM Services New Orders | 52.2 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | US | ISM Services Prices Index | 62.6 | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | 28-Mar | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | -- | -- | Bcf |
| 03/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | 04-Apr | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 03/04/2025 | 1530/1130 | 04-Apr | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | Mar | JP | Household spending y/y | 0.8 | -0.8 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0545/0745 | Mar | CH | Unemployment Rate | 2.7 | 2.7 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0545/0745 | Mar | CH | Unemployment m/m | -0.2 | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0545/0745 | Mar | CH | Unemployment y/y | 21.1 | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | Feb | DE | Manufacturing Orders m/m | -7 | 3.5 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | Feb | FR | Industrial Production m/m | -0.6 | 0.5 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | Feb | FR | Industrial Production y/y | -1.6 | -1.2 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | Feb | FR | Manufacturing Prod m/m | -0.7 | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | Feb | FR | Manufacturing Prod y/y | -2.4 | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0700/0900 | Feb | ES | Industrial Production y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0730/0930 | Mar | EU | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | Feb | IT | Retail Sales m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0800/1000 | Feb | IT | Retail Sales y/y nsa | -- | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 0830/0930 | Mar | UK | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | CA | Employment Change | 1.1 | 10 | (k) |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.6 | 6.7 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Average Hourly Earnings y/y, current month | -- | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Average Hourly Earnings, m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Average Workweek, All Workers | 34.1 | 34.2 | hrs |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Nonfarm Payrolls | 151 | 135 | (k) |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Prev Nonfarm Payrolls, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Private Payrolls | 140 | 125 | (k) |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 1230/0830 | Mar | US | Unemployment Rate (3 dp) | -- | -- | % |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 04/04/2025 | 1700/1300 | 04-Apr | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | Feb | JP | Base wages y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | Feb | JP | Real wages y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 2330/0830 | Feb | JP | Total wages y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | Feb | DE | Trade balance exports m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | Feb | DE | Trade balance imports m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | Feb | DE | Trade balance m/m | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 07/04/2025 | 0600/0800 | Feb | DE | Industrial Production m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | Feb | EU | Retail Sales m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 0900/1100 | Feb | EU | Retail Sales y/y wda | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | Q1 | CA | BOC Business Outlook Indicator | -- | -- | |
| 07/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | Q1 | CA | Future sales (bal. of opinion) | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | Q1 | CA | Investment (bal. of opinion) | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 1430/1030 | Q1 | CA | Respondents seeing CPI 2%/less | -- | -- | % |
| 07/04/2025 | 1900/1500 | Feb | US | Consumer Credit m/m | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 08/04/2025 | 0645/0845 | Feb | FR | Foreign Trade | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 08/04/2025 | 0900/1000 | 11-Apr | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 08/04/2025 | 1000/0600 | Mar | US | NFIB Small Business Index | -- | -- | |
| 08/04/2025 | 1255/0855 | 05-Apr | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | -- | -- | % |
| 08/04/2025 | 1255/0855 | 05-Apr | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | -- | -- | % |
| 08/04/2025 | 1400/1000 | Mar | CA | Ivey PMI (SA) | -- | -- |
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
Apr-01 17:30
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2915 @ 15:51 BST Apr 1
- SUP 1: 1.2887/71 20-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 2: 1.2759 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and importantly for bulls, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs and above last week’s lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2887, is intact. A breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA is required to instead signal scope for a deeper correction.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Services Activity Dropped Sharply In March (2/2)
Apr-01 17:28
However, the pullback in the general activity indices of the 3 regional Fed services surveys points to a below-consensus ISM Services headline reading.
- The average of NY/Philadelphia/Dallas - which fell to the lowest levels since the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020 - is consistent with an ISM services index of closer to 50.0 than the 52.9 consensus (53.5 February).
- Compared with a less obvious rise in the price indices across the 3 Feds, general activity indices pulled back sharply in March across the three regions: NY by 9 points, Philly by 19 points, and Dallas by 16 points.
- Notably the KC and Richmond Fed surveys also saw their composite indices decline - so this is a national story.
