FRANCE AUCTION RESULTS: I/L OATs
Jun-19 10:14
| 0.10% Mar-28 OATi | 0.60% Jul-34 OATei | 0.10% Jul-38 Green OATei | |
| ISIN | FR0013238268 | FR001400JI88 | FR001400AQH0 |
| Amount | E540mln | E928mln | E218mln |
| Previous | E516mln | E824mln | E378mln |
| Avg yield | 0.80% | 1.17% | 1.44% |
| Previous | 1.11% | 1.25% | 0.75% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.41x | 2.44x | 5.70x |
| Previous | 4.16x | 2.37x | 2.94x |
| Avg Price | 98.15 | 95.14 | 84.08 |
| Low Price | 98.13 | 95.10 | 84.06 |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.074 | 94.964 | 83.837 |
| Prev avg price | 96.45 | 94.32 | 91.05 |
| Prev low price | 96.44 | 94.28 | 90.96 |
| Prev mid-price | 96.363 | 94.150 | 90.683 |
| Previous date | 18-Jul-24 | 17-Apr-25 | 18-Jan-24 |
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FINLAND AUCTION RESULTS: 1.50% Sep-32 RFGB / 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB
May-20 10:06
| Coupon | 1.50% | 3.00% |
| Maturity | Sep-32 | Sep-35 |
| Instrument | RFGB | RFGB |
| ISIN | FI4000523238 | FI4000587415 |
| Amount | E722mln | E780mln |
| Previous | E175mln | E4bln |
| Avg yield | 2.702% | 3.011% |
| Previous | 2.626% | 3.016% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.59x | 1.86x |
| Previous | 5.00x | |
| Avg Price | 92.11 | 99.91 |
| Pre-auction mid | 91.901 | 99.721 |
| Prev avg price | 92.330 | 99.870 |
| Prev mid-price | 92.313 | |
| Previous date | 06-Feb-25 | 29-Apr-25 |
Source: Bloomberg
FRANCE: New Conservative Leader Could Make Presidential Run-Off: Poll
May-20 10:00
The latest hypothetical presidential first-round opinion polling from Toluna-Harris shows the new leader of the conservative Les Républicains (LR), Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, with a chance of making the second-round run-off depending on the identity of the centrist pro-Macron Ensemble alliance's candidate in 2027. The poll shows that if former PM Edouard Philippe, leader of the centre-right Horizons party that sits within Ensemble, is the candidate, then he is a strong favourite to make the run-off.
- However, if the Ensemble candidate is former PM Gabriel Attal from Macron's Renaissance party, then the polls show that conservative hardliner Retailleau would (narrowly) make the second round.
- It should be noted that Toluna-Harris carried out polls with both far-right Rassemblement National (RN) president Jordan Bardella and long-term party figurehead Marine Le Pen as candidates. Le Pen is subject five-year ban on running for office, but the Court of Appeal is set to examine her case and deliver a verdict by summer 2026, which could see her run for the presidency.
- Toluna-Harris poll, Fieldwork 19 May, 1,217 respondents, chgs w/1 Apr:
- Le Pen (RN): 31% (=), Retailleau (LR): 16% (+9), Attal (RE): 15% (=), Melenchon (LFI): 15% (+2), Glucksmann (PS): 11% (=)
- Le Pen (RN): 31% (=), Philippe (Hor): 21% (-2), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Retailleau (LR): 12% (+5), Glucksmann (PS): 10 (=)
- Bardella (RN): 31% (-4), Retailleau (LR): 17% (+10), Attal (RE): 15% (=), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Glucksmann (PS): 11% (=)
- Bardella (RN): 30% (-5), Philippe (Hor): 21% (-2), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Retailleau (LR): 13% (+6), Glucksmann (PS): 10% (=)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact
May-20 09:55
- In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5693.1, the 50-day EMA.
- A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Firm support to watch lies at 5190.67, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.
