FRANCE AUCTION RESULTS: I/L OATs

Source: Bloomberg

The latest hypothetical presidential first-round opinion polling from Toluna-Harris shows the new leader of the conservative Les Républicains (LR), Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, with a chance of making the second-round run-off depending on the identity of the centrist pro-Macron Ensemble alliance's candidate in 2027. The poll shows that if former PM Edouard Philippe, leader of the centre-right Horizons party that sits within Ensemble, is the candidate, then he is a strong favourite to make the run-off. 

• However, if the Ensemble candidate is former PM Gabriel Attal from Macron's Renaissance party, then the polls show that conservative hardliner Retailleau would (narrowly) make the second round.
• It should be noted that Toluna-Harris carried out polls with both far-right Rassemblement National (RN) president Jordan Bardella and long-term party figurehead Marine Le Pen as candidates. Le Pen is subject five-year ban on running for office, but the Court of Appeal is set to examine her case and deliver a verdict by summer 2026, which could see her run for the presidency.
• Toluna-Harris poll, Fieldwork 19 May, 1,217 respondents, chgs w/1 Apr:
  • Le Pen (RN): 31% (=), Retailleau (LR): 16% (+9), Attal (RE): 15% (=), Melenchon (LFI): 15% (+2), Glucksmann (PS): 11% (=)
  • Le Pen (RN): 31% (=), Philippe (Hor): 21% (-2), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Retailleau (LR): 12% (+5), Glucksmann (PS): 10 (=)
  • Bardella (RN): 31% (-4), Retailleau (LR): 17% (+10), Attal (RE): 15% (=), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Glucksmann (PS): 11% (=)
  • Bardella (RN): 30% (-5), Philippe (Hor): 21% (-2), Melenchon (LFI): 14% (+1), Retailleau (LR): 13% (+6), Glucksmann (PS): 10% (=)

• In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5693.1, the 50-day EMA.
• A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Firm support to watch lies at 5190.67, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.