AUD: Hormuz Positive Needed For AUDUSD To Clear Resistance Cluster
Mar-05 09:50
- AUDUSD has continued to exhibit notable volatility on Thursday, already trading in a 1.11% range on the session. Spot trades 0.44% in the red as an overnight headline of a strike on a Kuwait tanker may still be weighing, despite the latest Iran headlines providing an offsetting boost to risk sentiment.
- Bullish conditions remain intact for AUDUSD after support at the 50-day EMA held Tuesday, intersecting at 0.6931. Short-term parameters for the pair are well defined, with a cluster of significant resistance building between 0.7125-50.
- Potential positive news around the Strait of Hormuz may be required for a convincing move above that cluster as AUD's risk sensitivity would add to Australia's significant exposure to flows through the strait in such a case.
- The RBA is likely to wait until May before lifting its cash rate from 3.85%, but could consider a larger 50bp increase if the Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher and feeds into first-quarter CPI, especially with inflation already above the target band, former officials told MNI. They warned that repeated forecast misses combined with an energy shock risk de-anchoring inflation expectations.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor seller
Feb-03 09:49
SFIM6 96.40/96.50/96.80/96.90c condor, sold at 6.75 in 4k.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Feb-03 09:48
Of Note:
EURUSD 3.52bn at 1.1850.
EURUSD 1.73bn at 1.1850 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.96bn at 0.6950 (wed).
EURUSD 2.07bn at 1.1800 (thu).
USDJPY 1.12bn at 156.00 (thu).
EURUSD 2.28bn at 1.1800 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1785 (496mln), 1.1800 (620mln), 1.1820 (636mln), 1.1850 (3.52bn), 1.1865 (436mln).
- USDJPY: 155.75 (877mln).
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 6/12-month letras
Feb-03 09:39
| Type | 6-month letras | 12-month letras |
| Maturity | Aug 7, 2026 | Feb 5, 2027 |
| Amount | E1.81bln | E4.325bln |
| Target | E5.5-6.5bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.948bln | E4.129bln |
| Avg yield | 1.973% | 2.028% |
| Previous | 1.981% | 2.032% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.85x | 1.38x |
| Previous | 2.01x | 1.52x |
| Previous date | Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 |
