BOC: Holds 2.75% Rate, May Cut If Inflation And Growth Slow Amid Tariffs

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, fell 0.1 points to 40.4 in June. The index is now 7.2 points below March’s year-to-date high of 47.6 and has now been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months. 

• The slight decrease was driven by a fall in Supplier Deliveries, Production, Employment and Order Backlogs. This was almost fully offset by a rise in New Orders.
• New orders rebounded 4.1 points, but remain below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by a lower proportion of respondents reporting fewer new orders compared to May.
• Supplier deliveries eased 6.8 points.
• Production pared 2.7 points to 41.2. This was the third consecutive decline, with the index now at its lowest since January.
• Employment retraced 3.9 points to 42.0, but sees the second highest reading of 2025.
• Order backlogs softened 1.5 points to the lowest level since May 2020. Only 4% of respondents reported larger backlogs in June, the second smallest percentage on record and the lowest since 1980.
• Inventories moderated 8.0 points.
• Prices paid climbed 8.3 points to 84.8, the highest level since May 2022. 70% of respondents reported higher prices paid in June, up from 57% in May.
• The survey ran from June 1 to June 16.

• MNI JUN CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER 40.4 VS MAY 40.5
• MNI CHICAGO: JUN PRICES PAID 84.8 VS MAY 76.5
• MNI CHICAGO: JUN EMPLOYMENT 42.0 VS MAY 45.9
• MNI CHICAGO: JUN PRODUCTION 41.2 VS MAY 43.9
• MNI CHICAGO SURVEY PERIOD JUN 1 TO 16

US Cash Opening calls, set for new record highs.

SPX high on Friday was at 6187.68, NDX 22,603.22

• Calls: SPX: 6,207.5 (+0.6%); DJIA: 44,124 (+0.7%/+305pts); NDX: 22,700.8 (+0.7%)