USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

Jul-11 06:06
  • RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3 
  • RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger 
  • RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
  • RES 1: 147.18 High Jul 9 
  • PRICE: 146.89 @ 07:05 BST Jul 11
  • SUP 1: 145.83 Low Jul 8   
  • SUP 2: 145.11 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
  • SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Note too that 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.11, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish.

Historical bullets

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Extends

Jun-11 05:59
  • RES 4: 93.26 1.500 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
  • RES 3: 93.05 1.382 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
  • RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 92.87 High Jun 10   
  • PRICE: 92.66 @ Close Jun 10
  • SUP 1: 92.33/91.56 Low Jun 10 / 9 
  • SUP 2: 91.16/90.59 Low Jun 2 / Low May 29
  • SUP 3: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger   
  • SUP 4: 90.00 Round number support        

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, resuming their short-term uptrend and strengthening the current bullish theme. This also marks an extension of the breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. The climb signals scope for a continuation higher and sights are on the 93.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.56, the Jun 9 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

Jun-11 05:53
  • RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
  • RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
  • RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
  • RES 1: 145.29/146.28 High Jun 10 / High May 29 and key resistance   
  • PRICE: 145.00 @ 06:53 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
  • SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
  • SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play - for now. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. MA studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high.

EQUITIES: Late Large Estoxx Option Blocks last night

Jun-11 05:52

Couple of late large Option Blocks in Estoxx last night, these are low Delta long Hedges:

  • SX5E (20th June) 5250/5200ps, bought for 2.5 in 30.3k.
  • Sx5E (18th July) 5150/5100ps, bought for 5.2 and 5.3 in ~54.8k.