USDJPY TECHS: Has Cleared The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.76/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 149.70 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 145.46 @ 15:57 BST Apr 3
- SUP 1: 145.20 Low Apr 03
- SUP 2: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY is trading sharply lower Thursday, extending the pullback from the recent 151.21 high on Mar 28. The trend condition is bearish and note that key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low, has been breached, to confirm a resumption on the downtrend. Sights are on 145.00 next and 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a move above the Mar 28 high is required to signal a reversal.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.2887 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2754 High Mar 4
- PRICE: 1.2714 @ 16:24 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 1.2545 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Tuesday’s initial strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2545, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbs to $135.257B this afternoon from $119.987B Monday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.
GERMANY: EURUSD Pops to Fresh Session Highs Following Merz Comments
- "GERMANY'S CONSERVATIVES LEADER MERZ: TO SUBMIT APPLICATION TO CHANGE DEBT BRAKE IN GERMANY" - Reuters
- "SPECIAL FUND TO BE PRESENTED NEXT WEEK"
- "ECONOMY MUST BE BROUGHT BACK ON GROWTH PATH, WTIH CREDIT FINANCED SPECIAL FUND WORTH 500 BLN EUROS"
- "500 BILLION EUROS FUND FOR INFRASTRUCTURE, 100 BLN EUROS OF IT WILL GO TO STATES"
- "GERMANY'S CONSERVATIVES LEADER MERZ: ALL DEFENSE SPENDING ABOVE ONE PERCENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT WOULD BE EXEMPT FROM THE DEBT BRAKE RESTRICTIONS" - Reuters
- EURUSD extending higher following these latest remarks as Germany shows a willingness to bridge the US gap on military assistance.
- Following the earlier break of 1.0533 resistance, EURUSD did briefly trade down to the 1.0500 mark but has since resumed the appreciating trend, printing a fresh session high at 1.0572. A close above 1.0533 would highlight an important technical break and provide the foundation for a stronger bullish short-term theme, opening 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. Above here, 1.0677 will be of note, a retracement point.
