ISRAEL: Hamas Denies Responsibility For IED Explosion That Injured IDF Officer
Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi has denied his group's culpability for an explosion in the southern Gaza city of Rafah that injured an IDF officer. Mardawi claims the explosion resulted from bombs left behind by Israeli forces, and that Hamas had informed mediators about the issue. Earlier, the Israeli gov't threatened retaliation against Hamas over the incident (see ISRAEL: PM Office-Israel Will Respond Accordingly After IDF Off. Injured By IED). It remains to be seen whether Mardawi's claims can be verified and if Israel accepts such an explanation.
- The fragile nature of the ceasefire means that even relatively minor incidents such as these (the soldier is reported to have been 'lightly wounded' according to Israeli press) could result in escalatory tit-for-tat retaliation that risks the continued existence of the truce, no matter the significant diplomatic pressure from the US, Qatar and Egypt (the mediators) for it to hold.
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SOFR: Goldman Sachs Recommend SFRZ6/Z7 Steepener
Goldman Sachs think that the SFRZ6/Z7 spread offers attractive asymmetry and recommended initiating steepeners at 6.0 on Friday, targeting a move to 20.0, with a stop set at 0.0.
- They believe that “the widely anticipated September payrolls print did not offer the definitive answer that market participants were likely looking for. The lack of another NFP release before the December FOMC meeting leaves something on the table for both the doves and hawks on the committee, although we still view risks to the very front-end - including December - as skewed dovish versus current pricing given the continued softening in labor market slack measures and recent wobbles in risk sentiment”.
- Goldman note that “amid the lack of clarity, terminal rate pricing has remained steady around 3%, with forward gaps beyond 2026 at historically flat levels. weaker labor market activity could front-load cuts and take terminal rate pricing more firmly below 3% but keep forwards relatively stickier, while signs of reacceleration in underlying activity could see the market open up the right tail on forward rates”.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund upside Call Spread
RXH6 133/134.50cs, bought for 9.5 in 3k.
EURIBOR: Large Calendar Spread
Large Euribor Calendar spread, helps explain the jump in Volume for these Expiries.
- ERM6/U6 sold at -0.5 in 25k, offered over.
