JGB TECHS: (H6) Shallow Bounce Off Lows

• RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 134.11 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 09
• SUP 1: 133.74 - Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 133.12 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope  
• SUP 3: 132.94 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Monday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal.

• RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 134.11 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 09
• SUP 1: 133.74 - Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 133.12 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope  
• SUP 3: 132.94 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Monday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal.

Precious metals found support from an expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday with another priced in by June. Commentary will be important in framing the policy outlook for 2026 and a hawkish shift could pressure prices. Gold rose moderately on Tuesday pressured by a slightly stronger US dollar but higher yields driven by better-than-expected US job openings data. Silver significantly outperformed as the market remains tight reaching a new record and breaking above $60/oz. 

• JOLTS job openings data for September and October were stronger than expected driving US bond yields higher and softening rate cut expectations.
• The Fed outlook is important for non-interest bearing gold and silver and while a December cut is widely expected the tone will be important for the policy outlook. The vote maybe split with FOMC members voicing different views since the last meeting especially as data has been scarce due to the government shutdown. There were signs that a few had become more hawkish. See MNI Fed December Preview.
• Silver rose 4.3% to $60.672 after reaching a new record at $60.831, above a number of resistance levels opening $60.852. It is now up 7.4% this month and currently trading around $60.75. Inventories in London not tied to silver ETFs have risen substantially but remain historically low in China, according to TD Securities & Bloomberg.
• Gold was up 0.4% to $4208.24 but is still down 0.7% in December. It is currently around $4210.0. A hawkish Fed may see bullion test the 20-day EMA at $4149.6 but for now it remains in an uptrend.