BTP TECHS: (H6) Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area
- RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13
- RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 120.34/77 Intraday high / High Dec 3
- PRICE: 120.28 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 119.54 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
Gains in BTP futures appear corrective. However, the contract has traded above initial resistance at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 120.77, the Dec 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 119.13, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 3: 93.07 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 92.85 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 92.44 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 92.12 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 91.94 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
- SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg
- SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg
Gilt futures gapped sharply lower on Friday. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme.
SWITZERLAND DATA: Q3 GDP Downwardly Surprises, Pharma Drags
Swiss GDP growth surprised to the downside in Q3, at -0.5% Q/Q (-0.1% consensus, 0.1% Q2), seeing its worst quarterly growth rate since Q1 2020.
- While undoubtedly weak, we do not see how the (singular) print should move the needle for the SNB, which views its monetary policy already as "accommodative". Downside pressure on inflation for continued headline CPI readings below 0% would likely be needed to put an SNB cut below 0% firmly on the table again.
- "Driven by a sharp decline in value added in the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, industry as a whole recorded negative growth. The services sector grew at a below-average rate", SECO adds.
- Forward-looking forecasts are more optimistic; KOF institute revised upwards its Swiss GDP forecasts late Friday, saying they "expect annual GDP growth [to rise] by between 0.3% and 0.5% compared to a tariff rate of 39%. This means that the seasonally adjusted economic growth forecast for 2026, currently estimated at 0.9%, will once again be well above 1%".
SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
- RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $51.242 @ 08:15 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: $49.604 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $47.274/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $47.274. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
