BTP TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area
- RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13
- RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 120.77 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 120.63 @ Close Dec 3
- SUP 1: 120.17 Low Nov 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.76 1.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 119.00 Round number support
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the sell-off this week appears corrective - for now. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A clear breach of this level would resume a recent bear leg. Note that the moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at 121.33, the Oct 21 high.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Nov 3
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.57 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
UK FISCAL: Reeves due to speak at 8:10GMT
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to speak today at 8:10GMT from Downing Street before appearing again at 11:30GMT in the House of Commons to take questions on the economy and the government's economic strategy. (The latter may be a different Treasury minister now that she is due to give a speech - but we still expect her to deliver both).
- She is expected to lay out her objectives for the upcoming Budget (26 Nov) and she is likely to note that the Budget will reflect Labour values, protect working people, focus on "fairness and opportunity" and to protect the NHS. She is also expected to reiterate her commitment to the fiscal rules.
- She is not expected to commit to any specific tax or spending increases and she is extremely unlikely to repeat the manifesto commitment to not increase income tax, VAT or national insurance. We still think there is a chance that one of these pledges is broken with income tax the most likely, in our view. She is likely to note that taxes will need to rise, though.
- There may be some hints that those with the "deepest pockets" will need to contribute more.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 93.96 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 93.37 @ Close Nov 3
- SUP 1: 93.15 Low Oct 27
- SUP 2: 92.81 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 92.38 Low Oct 20
- SUP 4: 92.07 50-day EMA
The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support to watch 92.81, the 20-day EMA.
