BTP TECHS: (H6) Impulsive Bear Wave
- RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area
- RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13
- RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3
- PRICE: 119.62 @ Close Dec 9
- SUP 1: 119.34 Low Dec 9
- SUP 2: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
BTP futures have this week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off on Monday opens 119.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.
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GILT TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 93.21 @ Close Nov 7
- SUP 1: 92.98 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
- SUP 3: 92.26 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11
The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent shallow correction reinforces this theme - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 92.98, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction and allow a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. The bull trigger is 93.98, the Nov 4 high.
MNI: NORWAY OCT CPI-ATE +0.6% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y
- MNI: NORWAY OCT CPI-ATE +0.6% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y
- NORWAY OCT CPI +0.3% M/M, +3.3% Y/Y
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 1: 154.48 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 154.04 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 10
- SUP 1: 152.55 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29
- SUP 3: 150.77 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17
The trend structure in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 154.48, the Nov 4 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.46, the 20-day EMA.
