BTP TECHS: (H6) Gains Would Unwind An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area
- RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13
- RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3
- PRICE: 119.55 @ Close Dec 10
- SUP 1: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 118.56 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
BTP futures have this week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off opens 119.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.
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UK DATA: Labour data soft across the board
- Private regular pay is actually a bit softer than expected at 4.17%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (BOE forecast 4.23%). This still rounds to 4.2% in line with expectations, however.
- This is due to a soft single month figure of 3.79%Y/Y. At first glance the revision to August is very small (from 4.21% to 4.23%Y/Y).
- The unemployment rate was also higher than expected at 4.97% against the expected 4.87% from the BOE and 4.9% consensus.
- 3-month LFS employment change -22k (expected broadly flat).
- The revisions to PAYE payrolls are in a negative direction too (last September revised to -32k from -10k with the flash October number also at -32k (expected broadly flat). This puts the 3-month change at -54k (the 3-months to Sep revised to -23k from flat).
- PAYE median pay is also very soft at 3.13%Y/Y. That had been 5.86%Y/Y in the last print.
- There is nothing in this report that is not soft on a first read (other than public sector pay).
- GBPUSD down around 40 pips. This is encouraging for Bailey to vote for a cut (but we've still got one more labour print and 2 CPI prints before the decision).
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 1: 154.48/49 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger / Intraday high
- PRICE: 154.24 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: 152.70 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29
- SUP 3: 150.90 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17
The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s marginal fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A clear break of the bull trigger is 154.48, the Nov 4 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.70, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: UK OCT PAYE PAYROLLS TOTAL EMPLOYEES 30.27M (VS 30.30M SEP)
- MNI: UK OCT PAYE PAYROLLS TOTAL EMPLOYEES 30.27M (VS 30.30M SEP)
- UK OCT PAYE PAYROLLS FLASH 1MO CHANGE -32.0K (VS -32.1K SEP)
- UK OCT PAYE PAYROLLS FLASH 3MO CHANGE -53.8K (VS -22.5K SEP)
- UK OCT PAYE MEDIAN PAY +3.1% Y/Y (VS +5.9% SEP)
