SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8719 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8693 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 06:34 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

The trend structure in EURGBP remains bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidative phase appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces the current bear cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 0.8719, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 106.925 High Dec 4    
• RES 1: 106.896 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg
• PRICE: 106.850 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 106.790 Low Jan 9 / 16 and a key near-term support  
• SUP 2: 106.725 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and the bull cycle since Dec 10 still appears corrective. However, recent gains continue to highlight a stronger short-term upward cycle. A continuation higher has exposed 106.896, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 106.630, the Dec 10 low. First key support to watch lies at 106.790, the Jan 9 and 16 low.

• RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3495/3568 High Jan 13 / 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3440 @ 06:23 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.3331 Low Jan 19 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
• SUP 3: 1.3289 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3223 61.8% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg

A recovery in GBPUSD from Monday's low highlights a potential early reversal signal. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.3495, the Jan 13 high. A stronger recovery and a move above this short-term hurdle would strengthen the reversal threat. On the downside, support to watch lies at the Jan 19 low of 1.3331. Clearance of it would confirm a resumption of the recent bear cycle and open 1.3312, the Dec 17 low.