BTP TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 120.05 @ Close Feb 25
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
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EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.08 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 162.91 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 160.96/159.73 Low Jan 21 / 17 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery resulted in breach of resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights scope for an extension higher near term, towards key resistance at 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.
RATINGS: Affirmations & Upgrades On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed {NE} the Netherlands at AAA; Outlook Stable
- Moody's upgraded {AR} Argentina to Caa3; outlook positive
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed {BE} Belgium at AA, Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed {BE} Belgium at AA-; Outlook Negative
CROSS ASSET: Tech Questions & Tariff Worry Weigh On Stocks, Support USD & FI
Equities continue to trade heavily while core global FI markets and the USD are bid.
- Two key factors drove price action in Asia:
- Heightened tariff worry, with Colombia agreeing to receive deported Colombian immigrants from the U.S. after President Trump made tariff threats towards the country.
- Chinese tech startup DeepSeek driving questions surrounding U.S. tech dominance. The NASDAQ 100 e-mini future is ~2.4% lower at typing.
