BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.75 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.02 @ Close Jan 29
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Recent gains in BTP futures highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.75, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
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GILT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38/59 High Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 93.09 High Dec 21
- PRICE: 91.84 @ Close Dec 27
- SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Friday’s move low reinforces this condition. The breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.59.
USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.08 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 157.87 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 155.89/155.01 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 153.11/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 155.01, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 5027 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 4939.00 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 4910.00 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nvv 29
- SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 4939.00, the Dec 19 high.
