MEXICO: Growth Pressures Mount as Tariffs Weigh on Manufacturing Sector

• Risk in EURSEK remains tilted to the downside, with spot hovering just above support at 10.9036, the Sep 15 low. Clearance of this level would expose the April 4 low at 10.7941. Spot is on track for a sixth consecutive close lower, currently -0.25% today. 
• It’s been another session with relatively few domestic catalysts. Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson noted that it is reasonable to look through the upcoming temporary reduction in food VAT. However, the Board will “monitor how households' and companies' expectations and behaviour are affected, so that fluctuations in inflation that are temporary to begin with do not become more permanent."
• This isn’t a surprising view to hold. We continue to believe that the policy rate will remain at 1.75% for some to come, with the risk of a hike to 2.00% somewhat greater than the risk of another cut.
• Today’s SEK strength comes despite a fairly subdued session for European equity futures. This week’s SEK outperformance may therefore reflect increased sympathy for domestically-focused narratives (i.e growth tailwinds from accommodative monetary policy and an expansionary 2026 budget). 

The DMO has announced a GBP3.75bln, not GBP4.75bln auction size for the new 4.125% Mar-33 Gilt next Wednesday.

• Stocks extending session lows in the last couple minutes, SPX eminis and Nasdaq leading the decline with Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and IT sector shares underperforming.
  • DJIA down 124.3 points (-0.26%) at 46,803.25
  • S&P E-Mini Future down 18.75 points (-0.28%) at 6,756.25
  • Nasdaq down 139.5 points (-0.6%) at 22,820.28