FRANCE: Gov't Spox-Macron Did Not Discuss Dissolving Parl't During Cabinet Meet

OI data points to a mix of modest net long setting and short cover on Friday, as Tsy futures ticked higher. There was a very slight bias towards net long setting in curve-wide terms.

• (BBG) – The US and European Union agreed on a hard-fought deal that will see the bloc face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, including automobiles, staving off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the global economy. The pact was concluded less than a week before a Friday deadline for President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs to take effect.
• (BBG) – US and Chinese officials are meeting Monday to extend their tariff detente beyond a mid-August deadline, and haggle over other ways to further defuse trade tensions. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the delegations through Tuesday in Stockholm — their third meeting in less than three months.
• (BBG) – China announced that it will start handing out childcare subsidies across the nation, in its latest push to boost birthrates after a worrying drop in recent years. The government will spend 3,600 yuan ($502) a year per child under age three, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

• On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
• In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.77. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.