CANADA: Gov't Secures Budget Passage w/Little Appetite For Snap Election
Nov-18 09:42
PM Mark Carney secured passage of the first federal budget of his tenure on 17 Nov. This was by a two-vote margin, and only thanks to the backing/abstention of opposition MPs. The budget passed with 170 votes in favour to 168 against, with Carney's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) being joined by the sole environmentalist Green MP, Elizabeth May, in supporting the package.
- Even with May's support, if all other opposition MPs had voted against the budget, it would have been enough to defeat it. Given that federal budget votes are deemed confidence motions, this would have sparked a snap federal election. Instead, two MPs from the main opposition centre-right Conservatives (CPC) and two from the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) abstained on the vote.
- While the margin of victory may seem slim, there appears to be little desire from many parties in parliament for an early election.
- Carney is still looking to establish himself as a national leader after taking over from PM Justin Trudeau in April, and the pressure on the economy from US tariffs makes it an inopportune time for an election.
- CPC leader Pierre Poilievre is still smarting from a disastrous election campaign, where Poilievre lost his seat, and the defection of Chris d’Entremont to the LPC. Poilievre faces an internal review of his leadership in January, amid record-low personal approval ratings.
- The NDP's collapse in April was so severe that it lost official party status in the Commons, and is in the first stages of a rebuild amid an ongoing leadership contest.
- While there will be at least one other opportunity for a confidence vote in 2025 before the House rises on 12 Dec (a vote on approving day-to-day departmental spending). However, it looks as though, despite external headwinds, the political environment will remain relatively stable in the short-to-medium term.
Chart 1. Federal Budget Vote in House of Commons 17 November 2025
Source: CBC, MNI. N.b. Black dot indicates non-voting Speaker. Dots on right indicate abstentions.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
