POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Fall

Oct-29 12:00

The German and French spot power indices declined with higher wind generation and slightly lower demand weighing on the German market, while improved nuclear availability is weighing on the French market.

  • The German spot power index declined to €69.41/MWh, compared with €87.72/MWh in the previous session.
  • The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €61.81/MWh, compared with €98.07/MWh the day before.
  • German wind output is forecast at 30.51GW during base load on Thursday, from 24.95GW on Wednesday.
  • German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 80.7mcm/d on Thursday, from 78.9mcm/d on Wednesday.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at 58.18GW on Thursday, down from 58.71GW on Wednesday.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast at 18.42GWh/h on Thursday, from 25.16GWh/h on Wednesday.
  • The French spot power index cleared at €53.26/MWh, compared with €83.40/MWh the day before.
  • The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €59.95/MWh, compared with €94.65/MWh in the previous session.
  • French nuclear reactor availability increased to 76% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 73% on Tuesday.
  • French nuclear availability is forecast at 47.68GWh/h on Thursday, stable on the day.
  • Wind output in France is forecast at 5.77GW during base load on Thursday, from 6.03GW on Wednesday. Wind generation is forecast to pick up on Friday and Saturday.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 49.94GW on Thursday, from 49.55GW on Wednesday.
  • Residual load in France is forecast at 42.31GWh/h on Thursday, from 41.94GWh/h on Wednesday.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: More Dec'25 5Y Sales

Sep-29 11:52
  • -3,000 FVZ5 109-04.75, sell through 109-05 post time bid at 0738:00ET, DV01 $131,600.
  • The 5Y contract trades 109-04.75 last (+3.25).

BOE: Ramsden due to speak at 13:00BST

Sep-29 11:52

Reeves has wrapped up so UK attention now turns towards Dave Ramsden. He is due to appear as a panellist on the policy panel at the ECB / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference” on Monday 29 September. There is a live stream on YouTube here.

  • Alongside him on the panel will be ECB Chief Economist Lane and the Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (2026 voting member).
  • We place Ramsden as the most dovish member on the MPC who did not vote for a cut last week – and will be looking for confirmation of this at his appearance today.
  • Markets price less than 1bp of cuts for the November MPC meeting and less than 5bp cumulatively by December. We think this is underappreciated the risk of quarterly cuts continuing. But we would September's dovish dissenters but Bailey, Breeden (who speaks tomorrow) and Ramsden to be on board for this to even be a possibility.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y Sale

Sep-29 11:46
  • -4,000 FVZ5 109-04.5, post time bid at 0727:30ET, DV01 $175,500.
  • The 5Y contract trades 109-05 last (+3.5)