EUROPEAN FISCAL: German Cabinet Approves Budget Blueprint
"*MERZ'S CABINET APPROVES HEALTHCARE OVERHAUL, BUDGET BLUEPRINT" Bloomberg...
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SNB: SNB Repo / Bills Settlement to Remain Unchanged at T+2
"Settlement cycles for standard contracts traded on the Swiss repo market will remain unchanged. The settlement of term repo transactions will thus continue to take place two bank working days after the trade date (T+2)."
- Comes against the backdrop that "Switzerland will shorten the standard settlement cycle for securities such as shares and bonds traded on trading venues to one bank working day after the trade date (T+1)".
- Press statement here.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Projects 2.7% Y/Y German National CPI, Energy Mid-7%
From state-level data equating to 89.1% weighting of the national March flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 GMT / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates national CPI inflation of 1.1-1.2% M/M and around 2.7% Y/Y (1.9% prior). See the tables below for full calculations.
- Analyst consensus stands at 2.6% Y/Y (revised this morning from an earlier 2.7%, average currently 2.65%) and 1.1% M/M, with the uptick expectedly seen driven by energy inflation. Risks against these figures thus are skewed slightly to the upside.
- Current tracking of core CPI (ex-energy and food) implies a roughly unchanged print after the 2.5% Y/Y observed in February.
- Energy meanwhile is seen in the mid-7% range.
- Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP (particularly since the change in HICP methodology this year). However, the direction of the surprise is generally the same.
| Y/Y | March (Reported) | February (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Hesse | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Bavaria | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Brandenburg | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Baden Wuert. | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Berlin | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Saxony | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Lower Saxony | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Saarland | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Weighted average: | 2.72% | for | 89.1% |
| M/M | March (Reported) | February (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Hesse | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Bavaria | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Brandenburg | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Berlin | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Saxony | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Lower Saxony | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Saarland | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Weighted average: | 1.14% | for | 89.1% |
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Sweden's NIER GDP Analysis Head On Post Iran Shock Data
Magnus Ahl, GDP analysis division head at Sweden's NIER, tells MNI about post-Iran shock data..- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
