JGBS: Futures Steady As 20yr Auction Results Due, Oct JGB Demand Firm
JGB futures are little changed at 136.31, -.02 versus settlement levels as markets await the 20yr JGB auction result, due in around 30mins. The last 20yr auction, back on Sep 17 went reasonably well with a bid to cover ratio of 3.997 (versus the prior 3.085 outcome). Since the start of Oct, the 10yr and 30yr auction results haven't disappointed the market from a demand standpoint.
- The 20yr bond yield, like other parts of the back end of the curve, spiked after Takaichi was voted as the new LDP leader. However, from highs of 2.75% we have since stabilized, last around 2.70%.
- Political uncertainty continues around who will be the new PM, with headlines crossing a short while ago that the parliamentary committee has failed to agree to hold the new PM election on Oct 21 (which was speculated on yesterday).
- Still the upshot of there is unlikely to be strong fresh fiscal stimulus (and thereby JGB issuance in the near term). Via BBG: "The 20-year auction is expected to go smoothly, supported by the high yield level and the bond’s relative cheapness, he says (Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management Co.)".
- BBG noted: "*JAPAN 20Y GOVT BOND AUCTION MAY HAVE 100.20 LOWEST PRICE:POLL" - BBG".
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CHINA: Weak Property Data Continues
- Property Investment YTD YoY and Residential Property Sales YoY declined more than expected in August.
- Property Investment YTD YoY fell -12.9%, its largest monthly decline. It has not recorded a positive monthly result since March 2022.
- Residential Property Sales YoY declined -7.0% in August, the worst result for 2025. It has not recorded a positive monthly result since July 2023.
- Recently Shenzhen announced measures to support the property prices and bring their policies in line with Beijing and Shanghai. The announcements as of September 6 included easing of home purchase restrictions for non residents, removal of home purchase limits and lowering down payment requirements.
AUSTRALIA: Latest Newspoll Reflects Weak Opposition
While a federal election is not due in Australia until May 2028, the latest Newspoll published in The Australian shows that there is little challenge to the government in the current political landscape with the two-party preferred measure in the poll rising to 58/42 in favour of the incumbent Labor Party after 55.2/44.8 in May’s election. The survey was taken last week as Liberal party infighting was very prominent in the news.
- Newspoll reports that the primary vote for the opposition Liberal-National Party fell to 27%, a new low, after 31.8% at this year’s election. The Liberals elected a new leader, Sussan Ley, after Dutton lost his seat but her net approval in the September survey fell to -17, down 10 points from the 20 July Newspoll but still above Dutton’s end April -24. She is 20pp behind PM Albanese as preferred PM.
- The government’s ALP is not gaining from the opposition’s problems with their primary support steady around 36% (2025 election 34.6%) and minor parties benefitting instead. The right-wing One Nation polled 10% up from 6.4% in the election while the left Greens is slightly higher at 13% after 12.2%.
CHINA: Key Data Stable in August
- Multiple data releases today pointed to a very modest slowing in the economic expansion in China.
- Retail sales expanded +3.4% for August, below expectations of +3.8% and prior month of +3.7%.
- Industrial Production YoY expanded +5.2%, missing expectations of +5.6% and below the prior month of +5.7%.
- Investments in Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY rose a mere +0.5% from +1.6% in July.
China's moderation is following a better than expected first half, with the data showing a likely return to expectations rather than anything worrying.
