JGBS: Futures Lower Overnight, House Spend Data Due

• RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
• RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
• PRICE: 95.205 @ 16:20 GMT Dec 09
• SUP 1: 95.200 - Low Dec 09
• SUP 2: 95.134 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 94.418 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures slipped further still Tuesday, taking out the next major support levels in the process. With 95.275 taken out, prices are pushing to new contract lows, opening vol-band support through 95.210 and into 94.474. Any recoveries need to break back above 95.900 to signal near-term bullish traction.

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed stronger, +11 compared to settlement levels (see chart), despite US tsys closing near session lows on Tuesday ahead of today's FOMC decision.

• The US tsys move was initially driven by US job-openings data, which surprised sharply to the upside: October JOLTS printed at 7,670k (sa; cons. 7,117k), while September was also higher than expected at 7,658k. Both represent a notable jump from the 7,227k level seen in August, just before the government shutdown.
• MNI: Fed Dots To Show 1-2 Rate Cuts Next Year - Ex-Officials. A fragile consensus for a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve is likely to produce a negotiated pause for early 2026, with the centre of the FOMC projecting one to two more steps down toward neutral in 2026, former Fed officials told MNI.
• (Bloomberg) "Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is getting closer to attaining its inflation target, adding to signals that the BOJ may raise its interest rate at a policy meeting next week."  (see link)
• Today, the local calendar will see PPI data.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
• RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 95.805 @ 15:51 GMT Dec 09
• SUP 1: 95.800 - Low Dec 10
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.114 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Prices printed fresh pullback lows again Tuesday on the back of the hawkish RBA hold. This presses prices further through January lows to touch 95.800. The slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes next year - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.760 as the next major support.