JGBS: Futures Little Changed With US Tsys After US CPI
May-13 23:14
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed little changed, -1 compared to settlement levels, after US t...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today (UPDATED)
Apr-13 23:10
| 2300GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | Singapore GDP SA QoQ 1Q A |
| 2300GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | Singapore GDP YoY 1QA |
| 0100GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Exports YoY MAR |
| 0100GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Imports YoY MAR |
| 0100GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Trade Balance MAR |
| 0100GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Exports YoY MAR CNY |
| 1300GMT | 0000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Imports YoY MAR CNY |
| 1300GMT | 0000HKT | 1200AEDT | China Trade Balance MAR CNY |
| 1300GMT | 0000HKT | 1300AEDT | Indonesia Foreign Reserves MAR |
BONDS: NZGBS: Sharply Cheaper With US Tsys, Electronic Tariff Pause In Focus
Apr-13 23:10
In local morning trade, NZGBs are 6-11bps cheaper after another heavy session for US tsys on Friday.
- US 10-year futures (TYM5) are dealing at 109-26, +0-03 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- The big news over the weekend was President Trump's exemptions on smartphones, computers, and other electronics, though this has been downplayed over the weekend as a procedural step. They will be looking at the whole electronic supply chain.
- On Friday, the US 10-year yield ranged from 4.5270% to 4.5860%, closing around 4.49%. The 10-year yield rose almost 50bps in 5 days, one of the biggest moves over that number of days going back to 1998.
- Several catalysts are being pointed at: hedge funds, basis - traders being squeezed out, and sovereign selling of treasuries as a negotiation tool. These have all added to the pressure.
- NZ retail card spending fell 0.8% m/m in March. Total card spending fell 1.5% m/m versus a revised -0.1% in February.
- NZ net migration estimates rose to +5,430 in February from a revised +2,370 in January. Annual Net Immigration Rose to 32,922 in February.
- Swap rates are
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 3-7bps firmer across meetings. 30ps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 77bps by November 2025.
NZD: Testing YTD Highs
Apr-13 22:50
Friday night saw some consolidation as the NZD finally took a breather after its relentless march higher. The NZD had a range of 0.5754 - 0.5840 on Friday night, Asia opens bid, last near 0.5835/40, pressing the year's highs towards 0.5853.
- The big news from late on Friday was President Trump's tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers and other electronics, though this has been downplayed over the weekend as a procedural step and they will be looking at the whole electronic supply chain as part of a national security tariff probe.
- The USD was sold heavily over the course of last week as positions built over the last 15 years due to US exceptionalism are starting to be unwound. These positions are significant and could take a while to be pared back.
- Technically the NZD held the pivotal 0.5500 area and is now being dragged higher by a collapse in the USD.
- The CFTC data shows both leverage funds and Asset managers are running historically large short positions. NZD is a favourite short in times of distress so these positions are being challenged. The data shows Asset managers in particular have been active in reducing those shorts.
- On the day the market will be watching the pivotal 0.5850 area as we start the week, a break would trigger another leg higher back towards 0.6000. Expect dips back towards 0.5700/50 to now find support.
- Data : The PMI for the services sector rose to 49.1 from 49.0 in March. Card spending for March was softer thouhg at -1.5%m/m for total. Net migration edged up to +5430, from +2370 in Jan.
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Positioning
Source: CFTC/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
