JGBS: Futures Edged Down With US Tsys, JGB Yields Little Changed

Feb-27 00:50

JGB futures sit a little lower in early Thursday dealings. March futures sit at 139.67, -.05 versus settlement levels. Earlier lows were at 139.61, which has kept week to date ranges still intact. 

  • A softer bias to US Tsy futures since the open has likely spilled over negatively to JGB futures. Still, US Tsy yields are only modestly higher following recent sharp falls to YTD lows.
  • In the cash JGB space, there has been little change since the open. 1yr JGB yields are up slightly, last near 0.59%. The 2yr is hold above 0.80%, while the 10yr is close to 1.375%.
  • In the swaps space, we are slightly up in yield terms. The 10yr last close to 1.24%.
  • The data calendar is empty today. Later on, we have the 2yr JGB auction.
  • Tomorrow is much busier on the data front, headlined by Tokyo CPI for Feb. 

Historical bullets

AUSTRALIA DATA: NAB Business Surveys, Business Conditions Improve

Jan-28 00:42
  • Australian business conditions improved in December, rising 3pt to +6, driven by a recovery in retail as consumer spending strengthened and price pressures eased. Retail conditions turned positive for the first time since November 2023, while business confidence edged up 1pt to -2. Services sectors remained the strongest performers, and capacity utilization rose to 82.8%, above its long-term average, indicating robust demand.
  • The report highlights softer wage pressures, with labor cost growth at 1.4%, ahead of key quarterly inflation data that may prompt the RBA to consider rate cuts.
  • Focus will now turn to tomorrow's 4Q CPI, which is expected to show a drop to 2.5% from 2.8% y/y prior. RBA-date OIS is pricing in a 80% chance of a 25bps cut at the Feb meeting, firming 2bps this morning.

AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Jun-54 Auction Goes Smoothly With More Demand

Jan-28 00:16

Today's result has continued the trend of firm pricing for ACGB auctions, as the weighted average yield printed 0.28bps through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker). The cover ratio was 3.6500x versus 2.8233x previously.

  • An outright yield which was around 35bps higher than the previous auction appears to have contributed to today’s bidding even though it was still 35bps lower than the November 2023 high.
  • It is also important to acknowledge that improved sentiment towards longer-dated global bonds over the past month might have assisted the bid.
  • The ACGB Jun-54 cash trade is slightly cheaper in post-auction dealings.

AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Jun-54 Auction Results

Jan-28 00:09

The AOFM sells A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond, #TB169:

  • Average Yield (%): 4.9405 (prev. 4.5951)
  • High Yield (%): 4.945 (prev. 4.5975)
  • Bid/Cover: 3.6500x (prev. 2.8233x)
  • Allotted at Highest Accepted Yield as % of Bid at that Yield (%): 23.5 (prev. 70.1)
  • Bidders: 58 (prev. 43), 22 successful (prev. 19), 15 allocated in full (prev. 11)