EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Record High
* RES 4: 179.50 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low * RES 3: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Ju...
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6589 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 0.6576 @ 07:56 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 0.6515 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD traded higher Friday and is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The current bull cycle confirms the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high, has been cleared. This exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume a bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.
STIR: Euribor Futures Off Lows But Post-payrolls Highs Intact
Euribor futures are moving away from Asia-Pac lows alongside short-end EGBs, but Friday’s post-US labour market report highs remain intact across the strip. Futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues versus Friday’s settlement levels at typing.
- EUR STIRs are awaiting Thursday’s ECB decision, which includes an updated set of macroeconomic projections, for fresh cues on the path for monetary policy over the next few years.
- The ECB is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 2.00% on Thursday, with OIS markets assigning virtually zero implied probability of such a move. Developments over the summer have done little to push back on President Lagarde's hawkish signalling at the ECB's July press conference.
- That said, the MNI Policy team’s latest sources piece, released on Friday, suggested another cut is still possible if data shows a return of economic weakness or suggests a greater-than-expected inflation undershoot. According to sources, the risk bias among policymakers remains cautiously to the downside as they maintain a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
- ECB-dated OIS price 18bps of easing through July 2026.
- Banque de France’s Villeroy is scheduled to speak at 1810BST today, but shouldn’t touch on monetary policy given the ECB is in its pre-meeting quiet period.
- The September Eurozone Sentix survey is due at 0930BST, but isn’t usually a market mover.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.925 | 0.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.905 | -1.8 |
| Dec-25 | 1.839 | -8.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.815 | -10.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.767 | -15.7 |
| Apr-26 | 1.754 | -16.9 |
| Jun-26 | 1.744 | -17.9 |
| Jul-26 | 1.741 | -18.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6585.83 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 6499.75 @ 07:26 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 6451.12/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6353.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6447.06, the 20-day EMA.
